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The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) was formerly launched in January 2020. It is touted as one of Africa’s most ambitious efforts towards regional economic integration. The AfCFTA aims to create a single continental market for goods and services, seeking to boost intra-African trade, stimulate industrial development, and foster economic growth. Five years after the launch of the AfCFTA, we seek to assess attitudes towards it through three primary objectives: outlining some of the public engagements and activities related to the AfCFTA since its inception; analysing stakeholder perceptions regarding challenges and opportunities; and synthesizing insights from these perspectives using a theoretical framework that integrates traditional regional integration ‘isms’ alongside new lenses of optimism, pessimism, and caution.
Scholars and policymakers alike have extensively debated the transformative potential of the AfCFTA while also acknowledging the myriad challenges involved in such an endeavour. Traditional theories of regional integration provide valuable insights into the motivations and obstacles encountered by initiatives such as AfCFTA.
Realism, with its emphasis on state sovereignty and power politics, cautions that African states may prioritise national interests over continental cooperation, potentially undermining the collective gains that the AfCFTA proposes. This is evident in some member states’ hesitance to fully harmonise trade policies due to fears of exposing local industries to external competition. Conversely, neoliberal institutionalism highlights the advantages of cooperation through institutional frameworks and the reduction of trade barriers to spur economic growth.
The intergovernmentalism perspective underscores that member states remain primary actors, and integration outcomes depend on political will and negotiation dynamics. Just like intergovernmentalism, institutionalism also brings attention to the role of supranational organisations such as the African Union and the AfCFTA Secretariat in coordinating policies, resolving disputes, and monitoring compliance whereas regionalism, in the African context, is deeply tied to Pan-African ideals of political unity, economic self-reliance, and collective identity.
While there is substantial discussion on the economic and political dimensions of the AfCFTA, they have focused the least on systematically integrating stakeholder moods (optimism, pessimism, caution) into the theoretical and empirical analysis of regional integration. There is, therefore, a need for more nuanced, multidimensional frameworks that consider both macro-level policy factors and micro-level business realities, which is what this discussion focuses on, combining established theoretical paradigms with new perceptual lenses to provide a more comprehensive understanding of AfCFTA’s unfolding trajectory.
The AfCFTA is seen as a transformative initiative that has the potential to boost intra-African trade, foster economic integration, and drive industrialisation across the continent. The implementation of AfCFTA is expected to create the world’s largest free trade area, with a combined GDP of US$3 trillion. Proponents highlight the opportunity for African countries to move away from the colonial economic model and strengthen their capacities for long-term industrial development. However, challenges remain, such as the need to finalise rules of origin and address infrastructure gaps. Nonetheless, the AfCFTA is widely viewed as a crucial step towards realising the vision of a more prosperous, integrated, and self-reliant Africa.
Our observations of consultative meetings involving policymakers, SMEs, enterprises, and civil society actors, including discussions at forums, reveal that stakeholders are concerned about the challenges AfCFTA faces in achieving its set objectives.
Some key points include the idea that African Union needs to set clear standards and enforcement mechanisms for its members, as currently it acts selectively and treats members differently; there are concerns about the lack of unity and support for the AfCFTA’s mission. Here, reference is made to the Algerian military dictatorship as a major obstacle to African integration, and Tanzania is cited as a conservative country that has been slow to join the AfCFTA and implement progressive policies. The overarching concern highlights the ongoing difficulties in realising the vision of a united and integrated Africa. Aside from the concerns, others express caution and pessimism, whereas others are also optimistic.
A note of caution, for example, is the huge expectations that people have, and the fear that the AfCFTA could face the fate of other such initiatives. Discussions have also highlighted the caution that the full benefits of the AfCFTA might not be realised due to the failure of African governments to implement the complementary reforms needed to strengthen regional institutions and address barriers such as lack of infrastructure, access to finance for SMEs, and environmental sustainability.
There are others who are also cautioning citizens against pessimism. They observe that although the AU may have its problems, we only have to support the AfCFTA to succeed. They note that at least out of the Agenda 2063 came the implementation of the AfCFTA. They emphasise the need for Africa to take ownership of its development agenda and partner with the European Union and other external actors on mutually agreed terms.
On optimism, the AfCFTA is widely seen as a transformative opportunity for Africa’s economic development and integration. Commentators have expressed optimism about the potential of the AfCFTA to boost intra-African trade, strengthen regional value chains, and facilitate the continent’s industrialisation and economic diversification. Many emphasise the need for the full implementation of the AfCFTA to maximise its benefits, including enabling the free movement of people, goods, and services across borders. Specific examples are noted of how the AfCFTA could benefit various sectors and businesses, from broadband internet start-ups to manufacturers seeking to expand their markets.
