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Modelling the COVID-19 Pandemic in East Africa

Using mathematical modelling to track and predict the progress of the coronavirus outbreak.

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Modelling the COVID-19 Pandemic in East Africa
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Mathematical models allow us to extrapolate from information currently available about the state and progress of an outbreak, to predict future cases. In this article, we illustrate how, using mathematical models, the COVID-19 outbreak can be modelled mathematically to help prepare for the worst-case scenario and to develop a vaccination policy.

As can be seen from Figure 1, it is clear that the outbreak of COVID-19 in East Africa is taking a similar shape to that of China, USA and other European countries. The infections in China seem to have flattened by the last week of February 2020. East African countries seem to be at different phases of the disease outbreak. Kenya has the highest number of reported cases so far. This could be attributed to the relatively higher number of tests Kenya is carrying out compared to other East African countries. The United States has over 800,000 confirmed cases so far. The time it will take for the infections to significantly slowdown is of much interest to all the stakeholders.

Figure 1: COVID-19 Cumulative confirmed cases in East Africa, Europe, USA and China between 22/01/2020 and 21/04/2020. Data Source: Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE)

Daily Confirmed Cases

The daily confirmed cases in East Africa, China, USA and some selected countries in Europe are given in Figure 2. It is clear that the confirmed cases in East Africa are still very low compared to Europe, the US and China. This could be attributed to the relatively fewer tests in East Africa. However, Tanzania has reported the highest daily confirmed cases (84) followed by Kenya (29). Daily confirmed cases in China, UK, Italy, France, and Germany are declining while they are increasing in Russia. The trend is quite unstable in USA.

Figure 2: COVID-19 Daily confirmed cases in East Africa, Europe, USA and China between 22/01/2020 and 21/04/2020. Data Source: Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE)

Daily Confirmed Cases Curve in Europe, USA and China

As can be seen from Figure 3, the infections in China, Italy, France, Germany and Spain are in the decline. On the other hand, the daily infections in the US and Russia are yet to start declining.

Figure 3: Daily confirmed cases in China and some selected countries in Europe
Data Source: Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE)

Considering that the follow-up in China started on 2 December 2019 while in all other countries in the world it started on 22 January 2020, Figure 4 shows the time it took China, Italy, France, Germany and Spain to experience a downward trend in daily infections.

Figure 4: Time taken to experience a downward trend in the Infections in Chinam Italy, France, Germany and Spain
Data Source: Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE)

These countries took 67 days, on average, to experience a downward trend in daily infections. Considering the health facilities in these countries and the time they took to implement a total lockdown, 67 days seems to be the earliest time a country can take to experience a downward trend in COVID–19 infections taking into account the measures taken by these countries such as testing, lockdown, social distancing, surveillance and contact tracing. 140 days (about 5 months) is the minimum time any country will take to return to normalcy in terms of COVID-19.

Daily Confirmed and Recovered Cases

Figure 5 gives the daily confirmed and recovered cases in China and Kenya. It is clear that the number of recovered cases in Kenya is currently lower than the number of daily infections. The daily infections in Kenya seem to be increasing despite the country having experienced a decline around the second week of April 2020. This could be attributed to the increased number of daily tests. The recoveries in China had overshot the infections by the first week of March 2020.

Figure 5: Daily Confirmed and Recovered Cases in Kenya and China
Data Source: Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE)

Daily Recovered and Dead Cases in East Africa

Figure 6 gives the percentage of recovered and dead cases in East Africa. Burundi has reported the highest percentage deaths (20 per cent). South Sudan has not recorded any recoveries or deaths so far despite reporting four confirmed cases so far. Uganda and Rwanda have not reported any deaths so far. The percentage of recoveries in the two countries (Uganda and Rwanda) are the highest so far in East Africa. The percentage recovered is a key parameter in modelling of infectious diseases. Every country in the world will have its own recovery rate based on such factors as status of health facilities and mean age at infection.

Figure 6: Percentage Recovered and Dead Cases in East Africa
Data Source: Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE)

African Countries with the Highest Number of Confirmed Cases

As can be seen in Figure 7, Egypt, South Africa and Morocco have over 3,000 confirmed cases while Algeria has slightly over 2,500 cases. Ghana and Cameroon have slightly over 1,000 confirmed cases so far.

Figure 7: African Countries with the highest confirmed cases
Data Source: Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE)

Recoveries and Deaths in African Countries with the highest number of Confirmed Cases

As can be seen in Figure 8, Algeria has the highest recovery and death rates amongst the six countries. Furthermore, among the six African countries, only Algeria has a death rate higher than 10%. Ghana has the lowest death rate of the six African countries while having the highest number of confirmed cases.

Figure 8: Cumulative Recovered and Dead cases in some selected countries in Africa
Data Source: Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE)

Recoveries and Deaths in some selected countries outside Africa

Figure 9 gives the percentage of recoveries and deaths in China, the US and some selected countries in Europe. Surprisingly, recoveries in the UK are very low compared to other major economies in Europe. Also, the number of deaths in the UK are greater than the recoveries. This could be pointing to a strained National Health System (NHS). The recoveries are highest in China (92.6 per cent), an indication of the expected recovery rate in a well-developed country which took the necessary steps early enough. Similarly, a death rate of 5.5 per cent in China points to the expected long-term death rate in a well-developed country which took the necessary steps early enough.

Figure 9: Percentage recoveries and deaths in some selected countries outside Africa
Data Source: Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE)

Prediction of Infection in Kenya

The transmissibility of COVID-19 was assessed through the estimation of the reproduction number R, defined as the number of expected secondary cases per infected case. In the early stages of an outbreak, and assuming no immunity in the population, this quantity is also the basic reproduction number R0, i.e. R in a fully susceptible population.

Figure 10 gives the estimated reproduction number of 1.241. This estimate is derived from the available daily COVID-19 incidences in Kenya so far. A serial interval distribution with a mean of 7.5 days and a standard deviation of 3.4 days was used, similar to the COVID-19 Wuhan characteristics.

Figure 10: Reproduction Number
Data Source: Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE)

Predicted Infections in Kenya for the next 5 days

Figure 11 gives the projected incidences in Kenya for the next five (5) days. For the country to experience a reduction in infections, measures must be taken to reduce the reproduction number by continuing to stress on social distancing, hand washing, etc. Infections can be minimised by implementing targeted total lockdown.

Figure 11: Predicted Infections in Kenya for the next 5 days
Source: Author

Table 1 shows the projected daily infections from 22/04/2020 to 26/04/2020. The upper limits can be taken as the worst-case scenario for the given transmission rate of 1.2 for about 600 daily tests for COVID-19 in Kenya. A similar analysis can be done for any other country whose daily incidences are available.

Table 1: Projected Infections in Kenya

 

       Date

 

Prediction

               95% Confidence Interval
Lower Limit Upper Limit
22/04/2020 12 5 20
23/04/2020 12 6 20
24/04/2020 13 6 21
25/04/2020 13 7 22
26/04/2020 14 7 23

 

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Prof. Gichuhi A. Waititu is an Associate Professor of Statistics in the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Sciences at Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Kenya. He holds a BSc in Mathematics and Computer Science from JKUAT, MSC in Applied Statistics from JKUAT and PhD in Statistics from Kaiserslautern University in Germany.

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Kenyan Budget Allocation in the Sector of Agriculture for the FY 2020/2021

For households which are going to be devastated by these economic realities, the government of Kenya needs to put in place adequate safety nets to assure food security and support food producers.

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JULIET ATELLAH - Kenyan Budget Allocation in the Sector of Agriculture for the FY 2020/2021
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One of the important responses and mitigation tools for proper planning and resource allocation during a time of crisis is a budget. Kenya has experienced infestation of desert locusts, floods as well as the rise in confirmed COVID19 cases. Following the government-imposed restrictions to reduce the spread of the coronavirus, the country is currently not only undergoing a health crisis but also economic crisis.

On 11th June 2020, the Cabinet Secretary for the National Treasury and Planning Ukur Yatani tabled a Ksh. 2.7 Trillion budget for the financial year 2020/2021 starting 1st July 2020. This comes against the backdrop of multiple the crises the country is undergoing.

One of the big four agenda of the government is to enhance food security for Kenyans. Under the sector of Agriculture and food security, the government has allocated Ksh. 8 billion to projects such as Kenya Climate Smart Agricultural Project, National Agricultural and Rural Inclusivity Project, Kenya Cereal Enhancement Programme, irrigation and land reclamation among others.

Additional allocation made by the government in the Agriculture and Food sector include: Ksh 3 billion to subsidize the supply of farm inputs to reach 200,000 small scale farmers through the e-voucher system; Ksh 3.4 billion for expanded community household irrigation to cushion farmers from the adverse effects of weather and further secure food supply chains; Ksh 1.5 billion to assist flower and horticultural farmers access international markets; Ksh 1.8 billion to enhance aquaculture business development projects; Ksh 1.4 billion to support small-scale irrigation and value addition; Ksh 1.3 billion to enhance resilience of pastoral communities; Ksh 1.1 billion to enhance drought resilience and sustainable livelihood; Ksh 1.6 billion to support processing and registration of title deeds; and Ksh 500 million to advance agricultural loans through the Agricultural Finance Corporation.

The budget allocation for the Agriculture and Food sector is an increase of 21 percent from Ksh 50.1 billion allocated in the 2019/2020 financial year to Ksh 60.7 billion allocated in 2020/2021.

As compared to the previous financial year 2019/2020, the government had allocated the funds to the following Agricultural sectors: Ksh 1.0 billion for crop diversification and to revitalize the Miraa industry; Ksh 0.8 billion for the rehabilitation of Fish Landing Sites; Ksh 0.7 billion for small-holder dairy commercialization. Ksh 7.9 billion for ongoing irrigation projects. Ksh 2.0 billion for the National Value Chain Support Programme ; Ksh 3.0 billion for setting up the Coffee Cherry Revolving Fund which was aimed at implementing prioritized reforms in the coffee sub-sector and Ksh 0.7 billion to pay outstanding debts to sugar farmers for cane deliveries to public mills. 2nd July 2020, Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Peter Munya announced sugar reforms and government directives on the importation of sugar and cane trading license. Other reforms include leasing of state-owned sugar mills to private investors for a period of 20 days to process and develop cane on farms such as Muhoroni, Chemelil, Sony, Nzoia and Miwani owned by the millers.

Programme based budget for FY 2020/2021, the State Department for Crop Development and Agricultural Research which is a merger of the former State Department for Crop Development and State Department for Agricultural Research, tabled a total expenditure for the FY 2020/2021 Ksh. 40.1 billion. The department is mandated to ensure sustainable development of agriculture for food and nutritional security and socioeconomic development. Improve the livelihoods of Kenyans by ensuring food and nutrition security through creation of an enabling environment, increased crop production, research and development, market access and sustainable natural resource management.

Kenyan Budget Allocation in the Sector of Agriculture for the FY 2020/2021

Kenyan Budget Allocation in the Sector of Agriculture for the FY 2020/2021

The report states that, “ Other key outputs to be delivered will include: subsidy of 582,500 metric tonnes (MT) of fertilizer; procurement and distribution of 750 tractors to farmers; identification, testing and up-scaling of 30 appropriate technologies by the Agricultural Technology Development Centres; increased maize productivity from 40 million bags to 67 million bags through expansion of acreage under maize production; increased ware potato productivity from 1.2 million MT to 1.6 million MT through increased certified seed production and distribution; increased rice productivity from 112,800 MT per acre to 271,000 MT through increased area under cultivation and subsidized mechanization, use of certified seeds and water saving technologies.”

With the comprehensive reforms under the department of Agriculture, the programme based budget further adds, ” The State Department will also ensure increased cotton production from 40,000 MT to 100,000 MT; increased tea production from 1.1 million MT to 1.6 million MT; annual sugarcane production from 4.8 million MT to 8.5 million MT and increased pyrethrum production from 300 MT to 3,000 MT by 2022.”

According to the KNBS economic survey 2020, the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to have expanded by 5.4 per cent in 2019 compared to a growth of 6.3 per cent in 2018. The growth was spread across all sectors of the economy but was more pronounced in service-oriented sectors. The Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector accounted for a sizable proportion of the slowdown, from 6.0 percent growth in 2018 to 3.6 per cent in 2019.

Last year, the country experienced a mixed weather phenomenon. This was characterized by drought during the first half of the year, followed by high rainfall in the second half of the year. This culminated in reduced production of selected crops and pasture for livestock.

According to Timothy Njagi Njeru and Milton Were Ayieko from Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development, Egerton University on COVID-19 on Kenya’s food security, a key challenge for the country is to raise productivity in the agriculture sector. This would not only ensure food availability, but potentially lift households out of poverty. For the government to attain this, it must reduce reliance on rainfed agriculture systems, use modern varieties and technologies by enhancing investments in extension systems, build resilience of farmers against the effects of climate change and variability, and improve agricultural market systems and infrastructure. The 2019 population census states that, total agricultural land operated by households stood at 10.3 million hectares, equivalent to 17.5 per cent of the total land area in the country. Of the total enumerated households, 6.4 million were practicing agriculture. Households growing crops were 5.6 million while those practicing irrigation were 369,679. In total, 5.1 million households were engaged in maize cultivation followed by 3.6 million cultivating beans. Livestock keeping was practiced by 4.7 million households while aquaculture and fishing activities were practiced by 29,325 and 109,640 households, respectively.

With the current Covid-19 pandemic situation, nationally, 30.5 per cent of households were unable to pay rent on the agreed date with the landlord. 52.9 per cent stated their main reason unable to pay rent is due to reduced income/earnings. For households, which are going to be devastated by these economic realities, the government of Kenya needs to put in place adequate safety nets to assure food security and support food producers.

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Follow the Money: Is There a Role for Cash Transfers in Climate Change Adaptation?

While Cash transfers are considered a better way to reach the poor who are in dire need during environmental shocks or as climate change creates ever-harsher conditions funds can still be diverted and embezzled all along the entire cash transfer chain, and the scale and speed of these programmes will intensify the corruption risks involved.

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Follow the Money: Is There a Role for Cash Transfers in Climate Change Adaptation?
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Climate change is significantly affecting everyone but those who are suffering the most are people already in vulnerable situations. In Turkana County – one of the largest counties in the northern part of Kenya – recurring natural disasters, prolonged droughts and excess floods have lead to loss of lives, livelihood and left many people subject to extreme poverty. These harsh climatic challenges have left Turkana residents, a population of 926,976, to not only rely solemnly on frequent supply of relief food but has also disrupted their rich culture and nomadic way of life.

According to a 2015 Human right’s watch report, “climate change has been one of the many factors that contributes to the lack of access to clean water and food to the residents of Turkana. The county’s minimum and maximum air temperatures have increased by 2°C and 3°C, and the rainfall patterns have also changed”, the report adds.

“During prolonged droughts women and children trek for distances in the hot sunny weather in search of the scarce food and water in the dry riverbeds. Families are unable to provide sufficient food and clean water. Most children are malnourished and hunger stricken. Due to competition on grazing lands and water, there is likelihood of an increase in conflict and insecurity,” the report futher states.

A combination with existing political, environmental and economic development challenges in Turkana has had an impact on the Turkana people’s ability to access food, water, health and security.

A proposed solution: cash transfers

In 2013, the government of Kenya through Vision 2030 on the sector for risk drought management declared ending drought emergencies by 2022 through establishment of a government social protection programme called National Safety Net Programme (NSNP) as part of the government’s initiatives to improve and enhance social protection delivery in the country.

NSNP was established to provide a common operating framework for the government’s four Cash Transfer programmes including, Persons With Severe Disabilities Cash Transfer, Older Persons Cash Transfer, Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children Cash (CT- OVC) and the Hunger Safety Net Cash Transfer. Except for Hunger safety Net Cash transfer, the rest are run under the Ministry of Labour and Social protection.

Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP) operates under the Ministry of Devolution and Planning, managed by the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) a state agency, mandated to exercise overall coordination of all matters relating to drought risk management and to establish mechanisms, either on its own or with stakeholders, that will end drought emergencies in Kenya.

During the HSNP launch in 2008, the people of northern Kenya were gald and ready to embrace the programme as they believed it has the potential to improve the lives of the most vulnerable in Northern Kenya.

The program funding

The government of Kenya, with the aid of international donors such as UKAid from the DFID (Department for International Development) partnered with FSD Kenya (Financial Sector Deepening), to cash transfer payments to the people of Wajir, Turkana, Marsabit and Mandera.

FSD Kenya was a specialist development programme originally established by the UK government’s Department for International Development (DFID) to provide a continuing mechanism through which donor agencies in Kenya could pool their efforts to support the development of inclusive financial markets. In addition to DFID, it was funded by the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA), World Bank, Agence Francaise de Development (AFD) and the Gates Foundation. Because of its local expertise and experience in financial service development, FSD Kenya was tasked by DFID to take responsibility for developing a solution to the payments element of HSNP. FSD undertook a long process of market preparation before issuing an open call for tenders to provide payments services. In April 2008, Equity Bank of Kenya was selected by FSD bid panel to provide the payments.

How money transfers are trying to reduce poverty.

How money transfers are trying to reduce poverty.

The programme has been implemented in two phases. Phase 1, starting with a pilot from 2008-2012, funded by DFID & Australian Department for Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT). Phase two (HSNP2) of the programme started in 2013 – 2018, funded by the Governments of Kenya and the United Kingdom with a two-year extension in readiness for the third phase in 2020.

The cash transfer programme operates in two groups. Group one are households that regularly receive cash transfers and group two are households that receive emergency cash transfers from HSNP during drought.

Turkana is one of the counties that benefit from the programme. A total of 137,534 households have been registered out of this, 39,918 are households targeted to receive routine HSNP payments.

How it works

“On a particular payroll that contains the name of the beneficiary, identity card, Equity Bank of Kenya account number and the amount, there are instances where funds are co-funded by the Government of Kenya or DFID or both,” opines Peter Thirikwa, the Management Information Systems Specialist under the Hunger Safety Net Programme.

“For the DFID Funds, the money would flow through FSD where NDMA will then direct FSD the amount of money for the particular payroll. FSD would then credit the Equity bank of Kenya which is the service provider that opened the accounts for the beneficiries and then Equity bank would move the funds from the holding account to the individual accounts through the Equity Agents (Dukas),” he further notes.

Every financial year, “NDMA sets a budget for HSNP through the ministry of Devolution and Planning, and the funds will flow from the treasury into an NDMA account sitting at the NIC bank. As an authority, NDMA is regulated to open a bank account where money flows from treasury to the operations account as per the mandate of the authority,” he notes further.

“Then NDMA instructs NIC bank to transfer the money to an Equity account through the central bank. Equity is then instructed by NDMA to pay the beneficiaries according to the payroll, which is done through agents in the communities. Equity Bank of Kenya pays the payroll according to the instructions given by NDMA, credits all the households as per the payroll, totalling to the same value that was transferred to the central bank,” Peter concludes.

Delays and distribution issues

The HSNP originally provided Ksh 2,150 to each beneficiary household (or individual in the case of the social pension) every two months then later to Ksh 2,700 every month. Beneficiaries are given a Smartcard and to access the funds they have to use their biometric information, fingerprints in order to collect cash at any time from a range of pay points mainly small shops called Dukas across the four counties.

As of 23rd July 2014, the first year the government was in charge of the program, out of 100,000 target households for group 1 (the routine payments) 90 percent of accounts were opened, 78 percent were active and 77 percent were being paid. An annual report from 2020 said “over the 12 years, HSNP reached nearly 100,000 households (600,000 people, 60 percent of whom were women). Accordingly, group 1 households received regular payments, increasing from Ksh 1,050 every two months under Phase 1 to KES 5,400 under Phase 2.”

However, a team of journalists working with the Elephant visited several villages in Turkana County in November last year and found that though many people said they had been given cards some have never received cash and they didn’t know when to expect them.

The 2018 Auditors general report states that NDMA could not provide bank statements relating to funds transferred to the beneficiaries under HSNP. As a result, the auditor’s could not confirm the balance of Ksh. 2,119,239,700 and Ksh. 2,744,213,700 reflected in the financial statements relating to the government of Kenya and donor funding respectively.

How cash transfer works under HSNP with Kenya

How cash transfer works under HSNP with Kenya

Further, HSNP’s Government of Kenya and Donor programme expenditure of Ksh. 5,049,328,332 that comprised payments to various beneficiaries did not have a document to support the basis of how the various beneficiaries were identified, and the basis of the rates used for paying the beneficiaries was not supported either.

The then Auditor General Edward Ouko told the Elephant that he could only conclude that the funds were unaccounted for as he was only provided with the documentation he referenced in the audit report.

Is it enough?

Even if the money were paid on time in every case, that doesn’t mean it’s always adequate for people living in the regions affected by severe droughts, floods, or locusts. According to a 2017 Report on the cost of diet analysis in Turkana county, the current cash transfer of Ksh 2,700 for very poor and poor households is not enough.

“Current cash income and available livestock products are not sufficient for a family to access a nutritious diet. Avenues should be explored to allow households to increase their means to access nutritious foods, such as food for work or vouchers,” the report says.

The report suggests that increasing the cash transfer for these groups to Ksh 10,000 a month would increase affordability, but would not be sufficient in closing the affordability gap. Poor infrastructure in Turkana is a barrier to gaining physical access to the foods, that there is sufficient diversity of foods in the region.

However, the frequency with which these foods are available to households and the quantity with which these can be found in the markets is likely to be an obstacle to achieving a nutritious diet. The report adds that better roads will also allow for more efficient transportation of fresh produce and, possibly, decrease the extent of food degradation and nutrient depletion due to heat and travel conditions.

The cash transfer program is intended to continue running for at least another four years. But while these transfer payments can help those in dire need during environmental shocks or as climate change creates ever harsher conditions, experts and reports argue this is just one small part of a larger need for an effective long-term solution.

This article was developed with support from the Money Trail Project

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Things Are Elephant: The Effect of COVID-19 in Nairobi Low-Income Areas

The full extent of the impact of the coronavirus crisis in Nairobi low-income areas is yet to be seen but as Juliet Atellah analyses, it will be important to track.

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At least 30 percent of low-income earners have lost their jobs since the Government of Kenya placed restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19 reveals a recently published report.

The report, titled Survey on the Covid-19 Global Pandemic in Nairobi’s low income Areas conducted by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA), a local research firm, found that at least 60 percent of those who have suffered loss of daily earnings claim that the restrictions should be lifted so that people can resume their normal economic activities even if this means the virus continues to spread. This is against a backdrop of increased desperation in many of these low-income neigbourhoods, which has strained resources in a least 75 percent of households, the report notes.

Social institutions and movement have not been spared either by the lockdown. According to the report, at least 66 percent of the respondents have been affected by the ban on travel into and out of the metropolitan and the imposition of the 1900 hrs to 0500 hrs curfew. James Mogaka, a resident of Kawangware told the Elephant that he has been unable to travel to his home county of Kisii to spend time with his family. He has not seen them since the regulations were enforced. As is the plight of Mogaka and many others, the report highlights that 57 percent of low-income earners are very worried on the continuation of the Nairobi travel ban and curfew and they advocate for the restrictions to be lifted so people can resume their normal activities.

Things Are Elephant: The Effect of COVID-19 in Nairobi Low-Income Areas
Increase in crime has been the major reason why over 80 percent of respondents are keen that the curfew and travel restrictions be lifted and economic activities continue. They are concerned about the future levels of crime due to the economic implications of the lockdown. When asked to corroborate this, Eunice Mwaniki, a resident of Huruma and mother of two, told The Elephant that she closes her vegetable business at 1600 hrs everyday because once dusk approaches, gangs of young men troll the streets pickpocketing and mugging citizens of their hard earned money. She emphasised that the last time she witnessed this kind of theft and daylight robbery was during the grim days of the Nyayo era when Nairobi was infamously christened “Nairobbery”

A majority of denizens are pessimistic that things will change and even bigger majorities are “very worried” about contracting the COVID-19 virus with the constant rise in the number of cases and deaths. Indeed, how such perceptions will change as the full extent of the impact of the virus crisis will be important to track moving forward, given the impact of such perceptions on actual behaviour, both related to the disease and the conditions of life more generally.

On 6th June 2020, a clear majority of respondents had hoped that the President would announce an end to both the travel ban and night curfew but what followed was only a reduction of the curfew period and a hinted policy posture to open up the country. As the country gets closer to 6th July 2020, the day the lockdown will likely be lifted; it is yet to be perceived what direction the government will take. What is clear, however, is that Kenyans are eagerly expecting a policy shift that will make their lives better.

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