A Yoruba adage says, “Iku t’on pa ojugba eni, owe l’on pa fu’ni”, meaning the death that takes one’s contemporary is only sending one a message that it will soon be time to die. This adage draws Nigerian attention to the crisis that has thrown Kenya into chaos in the past few weeks. To recap, the youth have taken to the streets, invaded parliament, and continuously called out Ruto and his subordinates for proposing inconsiderate financial policies despite the suffering of the people. The Kenyan situation has quickened the spirit of millions about the state of Nigeria, the similarities in these regrettable developments, and how Nigerians could predictably respond.
Kenya is currently undergoing a tumultuous period marked by economic hardship amidst high inflation and high tax levies in addition to a loss of trust in the government’s ability to push for the envisioned “Kenyan Dream” that formed the basis of President William Ruto’s political campaigns and was a major factor in bringing him to power. It has often been the trend that during election campaigns politicians, especially African politicians, ride on public sympathy and emotions only to later act without consideration for the public’s welfare or needs. No doubt, President Ruto understood the game and explored its opportunities by basing his campaign on the needs and expectations of the people, leaving them hanging after the elections. Since September 2022, when Ruto became president, Kenyans have had many reasons to question their choice and bemoan their plight as the nation crumbles under economic crises and poverty.
With no end in sight, the worsening state of the nation pushed thousands of Kenyans onto the streets with demands for change and a review of the proposed Finance Bill 2024 among other issues. Government forces have clamped down on the protests, using arrests and state-sponsored persecution in an attempt to deter the youthful protesters.
A Kenyan protester waving a placard with the words, “It is not teargas but the air of change,” reminded me of the #EndSARS protests that took place in Nigeria in 2020. The situation in Nigeria back then and the one currently prevailing in Kenya have certain similarities. But my concern is that the situation in Nigeria has grown far worse than when Nigerian youth took to the streets in 2020.
The Nigerian economy has over the past decade been heavily impacted by the nation’s rising debt levels, causing untold hardship, recessions, and grave concern among policymakers and citizens alike. This mounting debt burden has put immense pressure on the nation’s finances, leading to higher debt servicing costs that consume a substantial portion of government revenue. In the second quarter of 2023 alone, Nigeria’s public debt, both external and domestic, stood at N87.38 trillion (US$113.42 billion), up from N49.85 trillion (US$108.30 billion) in the first quarter of the same year, a growth rate of 75.27 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The figure continues to rise by the day.
The Kenyan economy is also straining under the burden of accumulating debt, which increased from US$63.2 billion in 2022 to US$76.6 billion in 2023. By 2024, the national debt stood at US$78.9 billion. The country’s external debt accounts for 54.7 per cent of total debt. As in Nigeria, the debt has thrown the country’s economy into crisis.
Besides the growing debt burden, an underemphasised factor that is likely to push Nigeria into anarchy is the issue of corruption. The two most recent cases are the charges levelled against the erstwhile Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Godwin Emefiele and Kogi State Governor Yahaya Bello. Going from least corrupt to most corrupt, Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index for 2023 places Nigeria in position 150 out of 180 countries. In 2022 alone, 32.2 per cent of Nigerians had paid substantial bribes to public officers, excluding the egunje (involuntary “gifts”) routinely received by public officials and members of law enforcement agencies.
Faring slightly better than Nigeria, Kenya still ranked 123rd on the TI index. By the end of 2023, 45 per cent of Kenyans had paid bribes to public officials. The government sectors most affected were the judiciary, law enforcement agencies, and public procurement.
The governments of both Kenya and Nigeria had thought that imposing more taxes would alleviate their debt and cashflow problems and revive the economy but this has not been the case. In 2020, the Nigerian government increased VAT from 5 per cent to 7.5 per cent at a time when four out of every 10 people in the country were living under the poverty line. Many other fiscal measures point to the government’s insensitivity, some of which have been met with robust public resistance in the past few years. The increase in electricity tariffs, the proposed but suspended cybersecurity tax, and a host of other economic policies adopted in recent times demonstrate the government’s insensitivity to the plight of Nigerians.
Similarly, in Kenya, the government is probably convinced that greater taxation of hungry people will solve the debt problem and other economic challenges. The 1.5 per cent housing levy on employees’ income was introduced in the Finance Bill 2023. The government also proposed a VAT increase on petroleum products from 8 to 16 per cent, which would have affected all aspects of the people’s welfare, especially the cost of living and transportation.
Yet despite the economic hardship and the rising debt in both countries, government officials still spend public funds lavishly, hiring private jets and riding in convoys of expensive SUVs while holding citizens by their necks and forcing them to pay to salvage the situation instead of using the available resources prudently. Both Nigeria and Kenya run one of the most expensive types of government while their people barely survive.
In Nigeria, the cost of living, police brutality, and other injustices finally pushed the youth to action, sparking the 2020 #EndSARS protests that included demands for an end to police brutality and government accountability. The country descended into chaos, forcing the government to yield and dissolve the notorious Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS).
Similarly, the protests sparked by the Finance Bill 2024 that would have further increased the cost of living forced the Kenyan government to withdraw it. However, the situation that brought young Kenyans to the streets is not as dire as the one Nigerians have been facing over the past months. The rate of insecurity has increased, with individuals turning it into ventures and establishing criminal syndicates. Basic foodstuffs have become unaffordable for many; few can buy tomatoes whose price has increased by 400 per cent from last year. The price of garri, a basic staple for most, also increased by more than 300 per cent last year. The poverty rate is rising, making people work and walk with aggression, apprehension, and depression.
Injustice, police brutality, corruption, and insensitive government policies, are gradually pushing Nigerians to the wall. The government should draw lessons from the crises in both Kenya and Nigeria and take action before the people reach a point of resistance that no level of government intimidation will break.
