9 min read. The arrival of reformist Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed Ali, may have only given the ruling EPRDF a stay of execution. At the heart of the political crisis is an old problem: a command economy reluctant to liberalise. State-led infrastructure expansion fuelled a decade of miraculous growth, producing five times more electricity than the country requires. The returns on this investment are not forthcoming. Exports are falling, the Birr has been devalued; a severe forex shortage is underway. Is Ethiopia’s future as Africa’s premier power exporter viable? By DAVID NDII.
5 min read. The Kenya Budget 2018 has drastic implications on national and regional stability, on the Kenyan economy and on Kenyan workers. Its projections contradict data shared in previous Economic Surveys; it makes patently false claims, for instance, about the decline in domestic credit, to justify doling out billions to already well-provisioned sectors, notably manufacturing. But more than anything else, it is quite simply a perfect script for more waste and theft. By L. MUTHONI WANYEKI
6 min read. Corruption in Kenya isn’t about greedy procurement officers, fiddling civil servants, crooked businessmen, shady bankers, thieving politicians. These are merely creatures of an inherently corrupt political system. The current crisis was triggered by the capture of the public finance management system by what we call ‘cartels’. Now broke and in debt from all the looting, Treasury has officially turned against the people. By JOHN GITHONGO.
6 min read. Fed a daily news diet of scandal and sensation, and the choreographed drama of minions arrested and driven off in sleek SUVs, the Kenyan public’s attention is daily diverted from the far more serious resource scams, planned and conducted by the men in the shadows. In Lamu and Turkana, the theft of billions of dollars is already underway. By MIRIAM ABRAHAM.
8 min read. South East Asia’s Tiger economies have long triggered questions about why and how Kenya was left behind in the post-colonial maendeleo race. Instructively, it is the Tigers’ own ‘left-behind’ stories that may be illuminating - and none more so than the rivalry between Malaysia and Singapore. It is a cautionary tale with many familiar themes: tribalism and corruption, dictatorship and democracy. By DAVID NDII.
7 min read. A bridge over the Likoni Channel? Unlikely (there’s a mafia in the ferry business). A railway line between Garissa and Isiolo? Unthinkable (we haven’t figured out how to eat from it). But we’re $6 billion in debt to an unnecessary American expressway and an overpriced Chinese railway, the logic of the first sabotaging the other. 120 years since the building of the Kenya-Uganda railway, RASNA WARAH counts the cost of missed opportunities and handshakes in Nairobi that build bridges to nowhere.
5 min read. The tectonic diplomatic, economic and political shifts that have been embarked upon in Ethiopia will reverberate throughout the region as one of its giants embarks on an opening up of its society that is without precedent. This is not a time to be sceptical about Ethiopia argues L. MUTHONI WANYEKI
4 min read. The aberrations around delegation, particularly as concerns public justice seem to perpetuate the criminal administration of public resources. In a seeming charade that blurs lines between the roles of the political and the justice systems, the caretaker is programmed to take the fall and make heroes of the real suspects. But although nobody is buying it, nobody is paying for it either, because nobody is making them pay argues L. MUTHONI WANYEKI.
7 min read. Uhuru’s contentious second term may have opened with the announcement of his ‘Big Four Agenda’ last November; in reality, his final term has only really taken off with the mysterious March 9 ‘handshake’ with Raila Odinga. Both initiatives are personal attempts to craft a legacy - and they are being sabotaged by his administration’s severe addiction to graft, as the latest convulsion of scandals so tellingly demonstrate. How will Kenya’s fifth president be remembered? By JOHN GITHONGO.
7 min read. On March 6, Finance CS Henry Rotich writes a letter to the IMF appealing for an extension on a US$ 1.5 billion Stand-by Credit Facility, effectively putting Kenya back into an IMF austerity programme. On March 7, the IMF makes its ‘end-of-mission’ statement, detailing the terms of a bail-out package. On March 9, Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga seal a new political deal on the steps of Harambee House. Were these events a coincidence, or as has happened so often in Kenya’s history, orchestrated by the Western patrons of the Kenya State? By JOHN GITHONGO.