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Jubinomics in an Era of Austerity: Will the New VAT on Fuel Lead to an Economic Crisis?

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The increased taxation of fuel is making life harder for Kenyans and is neither good politics nor wise leadership. By DAUTI KAHURA

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JUBINOMICS IN AN ERA OF AUSTERITY: Will the new VAT on fuel lead to an economic crisis?
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Three weeks ago, at the Karen bus stop opposite the Karen Police Station, there was a face-off that pitted passengers against matatu crews and their surrogates, the freelance touts that hang around such stops soliciting for passengers. The 33-seater matatus headed to Ngong town, 10km from Karen, were charging Sh80. Just a couple of weeks ago, the standard fare was Sh30. Occasionally, if the demand outstripped supply, which happens from time to time in the matatu industry, the fare would go up by Sh10. Any increase in fare exceeding Sh40 for the 10km ride, whatever the circumstance, would be considered exorbitant. The passengers won this round, but the lingering problem of arbitrary and surreptitious increases in transport fare had not been solved.

The Nairobi-Karen-Ngong route is a microcosm of the looming confrontation between passengers and matatus. And Karen town could be the flashpoint. The route is a very lucrative one, especially during peak hours. Most of the matatu passengers on this route work in the many church institutions, mega malls, restaurants, schools and universities and a big hospital that are located in Karen. Some work for the wealthy Kenyans who have homes there. There are also a lot of casual labourers working in Karen for whom every penny counts.

The tension that had been building between the passengers and the matatu crews had been palpable: “Hawa wathii siku moja watachoma hizi matatu, hii hasira yao ni mbaya sana,” (“These passengers will torch these matatus one of these days, their anger is real”) said a matatu driver. Wary of the people’s wrath, the matatu crews wait for the people to board the matatu, then ambush and cajole them with the ridiculous fare increase. But a fortnight ago, the people refused to enter the matatus, until the crew members publicly announced the fare they were charging. After a 30-minute stalemate, the matatu crew eventually lowered the fare to Sh100. “Lakini bado hawa wathii wananung’unika, sasa sijui wanataka tufanye nini.” (“Even after giving them a fairer price, the people are still grumbling, I don’t know what they expect us to do.”)

Since September 1, 2018, when the new 16 per cent VAT (value added tax) on fuel took effect, there has been a commotion in the public transport industry. The Karen-Ngong town driver who said that angry passengers may one of these days burn down matatus to protest against what they consider to be unfair matatu fares, was voicing a concern that has in the past few weeks put matatu crews on edge. “Wathii wanateta sana, wengine wanataka tu guoko na sisi…si kupoa,” said a matatu driver operating on the Nairobi-Limuru town route. (“Passengers are really complaining, some are picking fights with us…it is not a good sign.”)

Since September 1, 2018, when the new 16 per cent VAT (value added tax) on fuel took effect, there has been a commotion in the public transport industry. The Karen-Ngong town driver who said that angry passengers may one of these days burn down matatus to protest against what they consider to be unfair matatu fares, was voicing a concern that has in the past few weeks put matatu crews on edge.

The Karen-Ngong driver who was edgy about passengers’ uneasiness with the hiked fares said that he was struggling to remit the Sh8,000 his boss demands at the end of each day. “On several instances, we’ve had to forego our own pay. At Sh115 a litre, the diesel has become way too expensive. We asked the matatu owner to stabilize his profit to Sh7,000, with the hope of balancing the books, at the end of every day but it is not working. I think some people have cut their reliance on matatus. This has a direct relation with frequency of the roundtrips we make – the fewer the roundtrips, the lesser the money we make.”

The matatu cooperatives (Saccos) in Nairobi are in a quandary: they have been mulling (even before the fuel tax increase) over how to “rationalise their increasing costs of operations without being seen as gleeful and uncaring,” said a top brass at the Matatu Owners Association (MOA). “The business is really hurting, but so are our customers, yet, somebody has to carry the load and feel the pain. Unfortunately, it has always to be the consumer.”

But the Saccos have been hesitant: They are afraid of pushing too hard lest their customers rebel and spark off a wave of street demonstrations. Conversely, the industry is undergoing one of its most trying times in recent times – dwindling fortunes occasioned by a gloomy economic outlook. “How long can they hold on like this? That is the Saccos’ bosses’ question,” said the MOA official.

In a bizarre incident on September 16, a matatu stopped at Corporation stage (that is before Uthiru on the Nairobi-Nakuru highway) to pick passengers to Nairobi. Before the driver could know what was going on, a chap grabbed the matatu keys, scaled the dividing wall of the dual carriageway and ran off with keys. The people milling around the stage seemed unperturbed by the incident and the passengers inside and outside the matatu did not seem to mind the ordeal. Afterwards, when I asked one of the freelance touts why the fellow (who is very well known around the area), was risking his life snatching keys from a matatu, his answer was: “Hizi mathree zinaumiza watu sana.” (“These matatus are squeezing people financially.”)

The matatus operating along long distances are not faring any better. My driver friend who operates a Nairobi-Nyahururu shuttle has been mourning since VAT on fuel was introduced. “I’m now spending Sh5,000 on fuel to and from Nyahururu, up from Sh3,200. Nyahururu is exactly 200km from Nairobi city centre. I used to charge my passengers Sh350 one way from Nairobi to Nyahururu before the fuel increase and I’d still take home between Sh3,200 and Sh3,500. It was reasonable.”

After September 1, he increased the fare to Sh400, but this has not helped. “Ndiraruta wira wa kuhura mai na ndiri.” (“I’ve resorted to pounding water in a mortar – in short, I’m doing zero work.”) Even after increasing the fare by Sh50 per person, the best he can take home at the end of the day, he told me, was Sh3,400, after deducting his expenses. As it is, his transport business was running on a Sh1,800 deficit every day – courtesy of the fuel tax. “I can’t dare push the fare more than Sh400: I know my customers, they are also suffering, we’ve to wait and hope President Uhuru will lower the prices,” said the driver nonchalantly.

The journey to Nyahururu is usually a one-way trip: A shuttle leaves Nairobi for Nyahururu in the morning at around 9.00am. The 200km trip usually takes about four hours. If the shuttle is lucky, it will make the return trip to Nairobi by between 5.00pm and 6.00pm, arriving in Nairobi at around 10.00pm. There are between 240 and 260 14-seater shuttles on the Nairobi-Nyahururu route. “If you make the round trip,” said my driver friend, “you count yourself lucky.”

His prayer about President Uhuru rescinding the implementation of VAT on the fuel sounded half-hearted and without conviction – like a person who already knows it is impossible but hopes for the unexpected to happen. “The truth of the matter,” he opined, “is that even if the fuel levy was dropped entirely, there certainly would be some relief, but life as it is, is already tough. Too much money had been stolen under President Uhuru’s watch and that is the price we’ve to pay for the profligacy.” But it has become increasingly difficult to hold a discussion on President Uhuru Kenyatta’s performance, especially with Jubilee supporters, like my driver friend. “Nitutigane na uhoro ucio.” (“Let’s just leave that topic alone.”)

President Kenyatta’s recent fulmination against matatu owners increasing fares, lest their licenses are revoked by National Transport and Safety Authority (NTSA) was rebutted by MOA, which argued the threat had no basis in law. “The President,” said a Jubilee Party MP, “will soon realise that nobody will be taking his threats any more seriously. He is a lame duck president who is doing his final term and holds no sway whatsoever on the politics of the future.”

The imposition of VAT on fuel has had an inflationary effect on practically every commodity that must be transported from point A to point B. In effect, this means that soon almost every household item will become more expensive.

On 20 September, the controversial Finance Bill, 2018 was passed by MPs. And without wasting any time, the President assented to the Bill the following day. The Bill’s vote in Parliament had been preceded by a little-nested game between the MPs and the President. The Parliamentarians had already threatened to shoot down Uhuru’s proposal to halve the VAT to 8 per cent, maintaining that there should be none placed on fuel and defying party chief whips.

The imposition of VAT on fuel has had an inflationary effect on practically every commodity that must be transported from point A to point B. In effect, this means that soon almost every household item will become more expensive.

“I’m afraid to tell you that even with that seeming reprieve, nothing much will move immediately,” said an oilman who imports oil products and runs several petrol stations in Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. “These are the reasons: VAT is charged at the point of sale and is calculated as 16 per cent on all other costs of the product, over and above the other taxes and levies other than VAT. No importer will agree to sell at a loss simply because politics have been at play. So, even if the Finance Bill 2018 becomes law, with the President’s incorporation of the eight per cent VAT proposal, oil importers will not agree to lower their prices. We must first empty all the fuel bought within the time the VAT on fuel was imposed till we bring in new consignments. And this will take some time. If the people are thinking they are going to enjoy the VAT reprieve immediately, they are deluded.”

The oil tycoon told me that such a situation presents a perfect scenario for the industry to play market games. “If, for example, some oil importers, for whatever reason (most obviously, it would be for a quick super profit), choose to create an artificial oil shortage by hoarding their product, the price must necessarily shoot upwards, momentarily disrupting the official levy on fuel products.”

Apart from the matatu price jolts, the effects of the VAT on fuel has been heavily felt by the long-distance transport trucks that move all manner of goods from source to different markets. Businessmen who transport goats and sheep from Isiolo, Laisamis, Loiyangalani, Mandera, Maralal, Marsabit, Moyale, Turbi, Sololo and southern Ethiopia to Kiamaiko abattoirs in Huruma, Nairobi, told me that their fuel costs had gone by up by between Sh10,000 and Sh12,000 per trip. These animals are carried for up to 14 hours by 10-wheel Mitsubishi Fuso trucks on some of the roughest roads and in the most bandit-prone territories. “Already the wear and tear of the trucks has been staring down at us, but with this new tax on fuel, it has complicated our business,” said one of the transporters.

“The increase in the fuel costs means that they have to also pass down the burden to us butcher-men,” said Francis Kimani, a butcher, who goes to Kiamaiko every day to buy meat products, including goats’ heads, offal for making mutura (sausage-like delicacies) and hoofs for boiling soup. Until recently. Kimani was buying up to 100 goat heads every day at Kiamaiko to sell to his staunchly loyal customers at his outlet at the central bus station in Nairobi. “I arrive at Kiamaiko by 6.00am, pick my stuff and quickly head back to my base, because my customers want to find me ready by latest 11.00am.”

Kimani hires a boda-boda (motorcycle taxi) to transport his meat products in a box-like container. “I was paying the driver Sh250 per trip to the bus station, but after the VAT increase, he doubled the amount,” he said. But that is not the only burden he has to bear: already the prices of his meat products have gone up by more than 30 per cent. “I’ll confess I was doing a roaring business until this VAT thing came. My customers have dwindled, partly because I am buying less goat heads and partly because they are also feeling the pinch.” From selling 100 heads by the end of the day, Kimani is now barely selling 30. He said that if nothing improves, he will consider relocating to either Isiolo or Rumuruti in Laikipia County. The business was proving too difficult to sustain. “I was born in Rumuruti, I know there isn’t much there, but home is home.” “Nairobi tuokire gwetha ido na muturiri.” (“Nairobi’s not home, we just came here to look for money and a living.”) He said that in Isiolo he could look for work as a truck driver.

The VAT on petroleum products was first mooted in 2013, just after President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy, William Ruto, formed the Jubilee coalition government. The VAT Act 2013, as it came to be known, was not implemented immediately; it was shelved for three years till 2016. When it came for review in September 2016, Treasury mandarins, through the drafting of the Financial Act 2016, postponed its introduction. But in March 2018, the Treasury Principal Secretary, Kamau Thugge, finally signalled the fact that beginning this September, the 16 per cent VAT on fuel would certainly be effected. This would mean that for every litre of fuel sold at a petrol station, Sh18 would be added on top of the original cost: a 14 per cent increase per litre.

Thugge was candid: The government had no option but to swallow the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s bitter pill. Since 2016, the IMF has wanted the government to levy VAT on fuel as a way for it to collect extra revenue domestically. However, it is important to note that although petroleum products were previously exempt from VAT, they are still one of the most taxed commodities in Kenya.

This time last year, the Jubilee government was reeling from two shambolic elections – both conducted within two-and-half-months. The government was broke and was looking for credit facilities, so it turned to the IMF. The VAT on fuel, therefore, is part of the stringent conditions that the IMF has imposed on the Jubilee government in exchange for access to a standby credit facility – a fallback plan for Kenya’s Exchequer in case the economy finds itself in the ICU and needs quick resuscitation.

“Playing good politics,” and presumably exhibiting “poor leadership”, President Uhuru seemingly chastised MPs for initially rejecting his proposal halve the VAT on fuel to 8 per cent. The truth of the matter is that the President himself, in regard to the “problematic” taxation issues, is neither playing good politics nor exhibiting wise leadership.

This time last year, the Jubilee government was reeling from two shambolic elections – both conducted within two-and-half-months. The government was broke and was looking for credit facilities, so it turned to the IMF. The VAT on fuel, therefore, is part of the stringent conditions that the IMF has imposed on the Jubilee government in exchange for access to a standby credit facility – a fallback plan for the Kenya’s Exchequer in case the economy finds itself in the ICU and needs quick resuscitation.

“The Bill according to the Budget highlights by the Cabinet Secretary for the National Treasury and Planning is intended is to raise an additional KSh27.5billion to finance 2018/19 fiscal budget year,” observes the Department Committee on Finance and National Planning: Report on the Consideration of the Finance Bill 2018. The report says, “total projected expenditure and net lending for 2018/19 estimates amounted to KSh2.533 trillion to be financed through ordinary revenue (KSh1.743 trillion) and AIA (Annual-in-Advance) (KSh179.95 billion). Expected external grants will amount to KSh47.037 billion, bringing the revenue to KSh1.970 trillion. This leaves a fiscal deficit of KSh562.748 billion to be financed through debt. The proportion of revenue estimates to GDP for 2018/19 is 19.6 percent which is equivalent to that of the 2017/18 budget.”

The Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM), one of the lobby groups that presented its resolutions to the committee, argues in the report that, “(the) local manufacturer was losing competition vs major foreign player. The local industries are manufacturing basic products with low gross margin compared to most foreign players, who can support the duty costs. Local players had to increase their prices around (five percent) and it’s the final consumer that will pay for the final bill. This, in turn, was jeopardising local employment.”

A Kenyan industrialist who had intended to contract some local companies to manufacture carton boxes for packaging consumer goods, such as milk, in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), told me he took his business to Uganda after he was hit with a prohibitive tax levy. “The Kenyan companies were charging me $0.7 per carton box – that is exclusive of transport logistics and documentation charges,” said the entrepreneur. “Yet in Kampala, I was being charged $0.42 – inclusive of transport and documentation costs, what they refer to as free on board (FOB).”

On September 18, 2018, President Uhuru Kenyatta rejected the Bill passed by MPs a fortnight before, citing his reasons in a memorandum that sought to overturn some of the proposals shot down by the MPs – chief among them, the 16 per cent VAT on petroleum products and the National Housing Fund, a new tax where the government hopes to impose a tax of 1.5 per cent of income on employees and their employers, ostensibly to fund a home ownership and social housing programme. According to the memorandum, the 16 per cent VAT on fuel has been scaled down to 8 percent in order to raise Sh17.5 billion in the current financial year.

A Kenyan industrialist who had intended to contract some local companies to manufacture carton boxes for packaging consumer goods, such as milk, in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), told me he took his business to Uganda after he was hit with a prohibitive tax levy.

Another proposal contained in the President’s memorandum was to tax betting companies 15 per cent, down from 35 per cent as the case is now. This proposal, instead, hopes to raid the lottery winners’ cash by taxing it 20 per cent. The President is looking to raise between Sh25 and Sh30 billion accrued from the sports gaming taxes. The total computation of President Uhuru’s memorandum proposal was collecting Sh100 billion in this financial year.

Gitau Githongo, writing in the E Review, succinctly observed that “over the past five years, several tax measures have been introduced, including: 12 per cent Rental Income Tax on landlords from 2015, successive excise duty and fuel levy increases in 2015, 2016 and 2018; VAT on bottled water and juices, VAT on food served by restaurants, as well as, piped water; successive increases in excise duties on spirits, cigarettes and mobile telephony; and 50 per cent Gaming Tax on lotteries and bookmakers in 2017, among a host of others.”

Gitau’s article touched on the real reasons why President Kenyatta returned Kenya into the arms of hard-nosed IMF economists: “The parlous state of Kenya’s national accounts – most notably the KSh 5 trillion stock of public debt and ballooning budget deficit…suggests that the slew of tax measures proposed in Budget 2018 was purely about desperately seeking to finance reckless government spending and not about providing incentives for private sector economic growth.”

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Mr Kahura is a senior writer for The Elephant.

Politics

Africa’s Land, the Final Frontier of Global Capital

If the designs of global big money are not stopped in their tracks, Africa is threatened with environmental degradation and nutritional poverty.

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Africa’s Land, the Final Frontier of Global Capital
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Three great factors are coming together to constitute what may be a whole new, and final chapter in the book of horrors that have been visited on the African people since the birth of Western European capitalism.

If Native Africans do not begin to think very deeply about what this is going to mean for what is left of them, in terms of their livelihoods and ways of living, then the recent past will seem like a small piece of paradise.

Unlike our ancestors, who are often blamed — opportunistically — for the original conquest of Africa and the trade in enslaved Africans that came before it, this time round, there will be no excuses or debate. Africa now knows what colonial conquest is and what it does, in a way that our unfortunate ancestors could not.

The first factor is that capitalism is fast running out of things to destroy in order to make profits. The climate crisis is the best evidence of this. This has been a long-term trend, certainly since the 1960s. However, the most recent financial collapse of 2008 certainly intensified it. Of the grand things and sectors left for capitalism to ravage, there is the production of food for the masses of people crowded into the towns and cities of the West, with no space, time or fundamental skills to produce it for themselves from scratch.

The global corporate food industry is based on one key assumption: that the human race, as it continues to grow in number, will become less and less able to independently produce food for itself. These is because of embedded assumptions about the inevitability of intensive urbanization, as well as time and lifestyle choices, themselves often culturally encouraged, if not imposed, by the same industry.

Food, that indispensable need, is now recreated as a guaranteed industrial commodity.

And so, a lot of corporate interest and money has migrated into the corporate agriculture sector, globally. Global big money is now trying to colonise food production itself, on a global scale, in order to find new ways of keeping its money valuable. Writing in mod-2011, the late Dani Nabudere perceives a deeper conflict:

During the first three months of 2008-the year the global economic crisis intensified, international nominal prices of all major food commodities reached their highest levels for fifty years. The United Nations Food and Agricultural Organisation-FAO reported that food price indices had risen, on the average, by 8% in 2006 compared with the previous year.  In 2007, the food index rose by 24% compared with 2006 and in the first three months of 2008, it rose by 53% compared with 2007. This sudden surge in prices was led by increases in vegetable oils, which on the average increased by 97%, followed by grains with an increase of 87%, dairy products with 58% and rice with 46%.

This means that investing in food, or the assumption of the future existence of food as a commodity to be traded. In short, what is known as the Futures market. But the problem with futures is that at some point, the commodity will have to come into existence.

The second thing native Africans need to be aware of, and arising from the first, is that African land is going to be in demand in a way not seen even at the height of the period of European colonial domination.

Most of the world’s arable land is now found somewhere in Africa. It is unclear if by this is meant arable land under use, or also land that can be put to agricultural use (but may be located under a forest, or something, at present).

The March 2012 issue of Finance & Development Magazine sheds some light on that equation:

Throughout the world, it is estimated that 445 million hectares of land are uncultivated and available for farming, compared with about 1.5 billion hectares already under cultivation. About 201 million hectares are in sub-Saharan Africa, 123 million in Latin America, and 52 million in eastern Europe. . .

The third factor is that arable land is only arable if it has fresh water near it. And it is only viable for corporate exploitation if it also has no people on it. Africa is therefore the prime target: plenty of fresh water, and very few real land rights.

In my estimation, the area of Africa between the Western and Eastern Rift Valleys running along the length of the Nile valley below the Sahel has been identified as on the last open, near-virgin territories, ripe for intensive mechanized agricultural exploitation.

That area’s human settlements have historically originated around the pattern of freshwater bodies. A lot of Uganda was once a wetland. As a result, the country will find itself located at the very epicentre of any such an enterprise.

Dr Mike Burry, a now legendary American stock market operator is reported in the Farmfolio website to have said, “I believe that agricultural land – productive agricultural land with water on site – will be very valuable in the future . . . . I’ve put a good amount of money into that.”

The website goes on to report quite sarcastically,

Over the next three decades, the UN forecasts the global population to increase to about 10 billion. How do you imagine farmland investments will benefit from an over 30% increase in mouths to feed? Good luck feeding two billion people with Bitcoin or gold nuggets.

In this sense, colonialism was just the attempted start, with the former white settler farm economies of Kenya and southern Africa as the increasingly decrepit leftovers. The goal now is African land in general, wherever land can be turned over to large-scale (and therefore mechanised, “scientised” and corporatized) production of the commodities needed to make factory food.

The implications are clear: the goal of the huge capitalist formations that dominate public and foreign policy in the industrial countries, and whose agribusiness interests have a global reach, is to turn Africa into a huge farm, both as an opportunity, and as a response to an internal crisis.

In a May 2017 opinion piece published in the UK Guardian newspaper, then United Nations Environment Programme Head Erich Solheim made a similar point:

Several scenarios for cropland expansion – many focusing on Africa’s so-called “spare land” – have already effectively written off its elephants from having a future in the wild. These projections have earmarked a huge swathe of land spanning from Nigeria to South Sudan for farming, or parts of West Africa for conversion to palm oil plantations.

All this speaks directly to the immediate future of the African people. Put bluntly, in order to put industrial agriculture in place here, there will have to be genocide, massive environmental damage, widespread human displacement, and therefore repression and conflict as the tools of implementation.

African land is going to be in demand in a way not seen even at the height of the period of European colonial domination.

The Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa (AFSA), calls the bringing of the US agribusiness model to Africa “a grave mistake”. They describe the model as “the single largest cause of biodiversity loss worldwide,” that “also fails to solve hunger, negatively impacts small-scale farmers, and causes environmental harm.”

It is in this context that the debates in Uganda and Kenya, for example, about land use and policy, can then be appreciated.

In Uganda, President Yoweri Museveni has launched a political offensive (once again) against the Kingdom of Buganda, describing its neo-traditional land tenure system as “evil” and in desperate need of reform.

This should not come as a surprise to anyone. First of all, Mr Museveni has firmly established himself as the pre-eminent fixer for imperialist ambitions in the Great Lakes Region. Whatever the owners of Western capital want here is what he will always try to deliver, no matter the collateral damage. Secondly, whenever the Ugandan president hatches a plan targeting the wealth and resources of native Ugandans, he begins with an attack on Buganda. Not because there is anything more valuable there, but because it enables the ideological seduction of a useful section of Ugandan political society: Ugandan “patriotism” was built on the notion that native identities are a bad thing, and that the Ganda identity is the worst of all.

It worked in the process of marginalising native voices in the independence movement and replacing them with smooth-talking “pan-Africanists”.

It then worked again with the creation of the culture of dictatorship between 1966 and 1979. Voices raised in opposition were easily dismissed as “divisive”, or retrograde. The mission now, was to build the new non-ethnic nation.

More recently, it has been deployed again to justify global neo-liberal designs on African land, through dismissing native resistance to it as “backward” and “parochial”.

Once it has been politically established that the overriding of native objections to anything is an essential and desirable part of development, then the “principle” can be applied in practice, to all other parts of the country.

Through its loyal and devoted client, the National Resistance Movement regime, Western capitalism is targeting all Ugandan land, regardless of which natives own it and under what system.

The same principle works differently in Kenya, but towards the same end. Initial white settler-based agriculture was never successful. Part of the story of Kenyan independence is actually the story of the Empire at headquarters becoming increasingly unwilling to deploy the economic, political and military resources needed to maintain a colony largely for the benefit of a small group of unproductive, self-regarding “middle-class sluts”, as one of the British commanding officers is alleged to have described the settlers.

However, a legacy of that time is that unlike in Uganda, vast areas of Kenya’s potentially productive land are still in white and foreign ownership. And a lot of this is in areas historically within a pastoralist ecosystem.

A succession of Kenyan governments neglected to address this historical injustice. In fact, through corruption, key individuals in a number of those regimes actively took advantage of the situation and joined the white families in becoming big landholders themselves.

Put bluntly, in order to put industrial agriculture in place here, there will have to be genocide.

Today, the three-way contestation between native (often pastoralist) communities, dogged white and other land oligarchs, and a wavering, uncaring state, rumbles on.

Co-author of The Big Conservation Lie: The Untold Story of Wildlife Conservation in Kenya, longstanding Kenyan conservation biologist, and land rights activist, Mordecai Ogada, has long argued that the whole wildlife tourism-based “conservation” industry run off the vast settler-leased native landholdings is basically a landgrab. The question will be Is this just for tourism, or will it be open to other ventures, like industrial agriculture?

It could lead to something deeper. Arguments for “development” and “rangeland/wildlife conservation” will be mobilised as a cover to carry out large-scale land grabbing and the eviction of peasants and pastoralists from lands they have historically occupied. Not just for the parochial descendants of the original white settlers now turned “conservationists”, but the kind of mega-scale mechanised planting that has been so central (and destructive) to the American mid-west, the Amazon basin, and native Canada.

This was also partly how the war that eventually split Sudan played out in the now separated south, and still plays out in Darfur and the Nuba Mountains. A significant section of Arab-descended northern economic elites was centered on the production of wheat. According to the Sudanese intellectual Dr Fatimer Babiker Mahmoud, in the late 1980s, this sector was making millions of dollars annually from the large-scale planting, harvesting and export of the grain to Europe, Asia and the Arab world.

Sometimes this meant the clearing of the more fertile lands of the south, the Nuba mountain lowlands and the Darfur region – all largely inhabited by Black Africans –  for the mechanised growing of wheat. This is what gave the conflict its racial character, as Arab chauvinist arguments were used to justify this genocide.

But, as with the white settler projects, these should be seen as trial runs in the greater measurement of our economic history. There is a need to understand the sheer scale and scope of these operations.

What may be coming will be much grander in scale, out of both Western necessity and greed.

Of the top ten foods listed as traded the most within global trade by  the Just-Food Magazine website in 2014, (fish, soybean, wheat, palm oil, beef, soybean meal, corn, chicken meat, rice and coffee) there are five key items that drive the processed food industry: palm oil, wheat, soya and corn.  It seems sugar cannot be accurately measured because it features in just about anything processed.

In addition, meat production (chicken, beef and pork) is dependent on the others on the list. Cattle are fed on corn, and soya (and the soybean meal) comprises part of what is fed to chickens.

The scale of the operations means that huge sums of money are invested. In today’s world, this means money from banks and institutional investors (hedge funds, etc.) as shareholders in agribusiness corporations. Poultry factories can contain up to forty thousand chickens permanently locked in cages for laying, or just warehouses of several thousand square feet. In early 2020, some 20 million chickens were being slaughtered each week in the United Kingdom. Corn and other grain are usually planted on lots measuring thousands of hectares apiece.

When investing on this scale, certain guarantees must be put in place. These are not matters that are left to chance, or fortune. And the primary purpose of all capitalist economic activity, especially in the West, is to obtain the biggest private return possible on any investment. And also usually in the shortest possible turnaround time.

This is why “insurance” measures are locked in from the start. In particular, chemical-based fertilisers, pesticides and fungicides and also increasingly, the use of genetically modified seeds and livestock, as well as steroids and antibiotics to promote rapid growth and prevent sicknesses.

In fact, through corruption, key individuals in a number of those regimes actively took advantage of the situation and joined the white families in becoming big landholders themselves.

The goal is huge, regular volumes of uniform products to be processed and marketed to huge urbanized populations.

The whole commercialisation process begins in the West, where this industry is the most developed. The European conquest of the continents of north and South America, also mark the period when food production migrated from being a community-based activity, to an industry.

This led to the clearance of human settlement from large areas of land, as well as the destruction of forests and wetlands, all to make way for the animal ranches and very big plantations.

This way of life is now being increasingly imposed on all societies, as “the normal”.

The recent riots in the Republic of South Africa for example, are an illustration of the dangers of becoming prisoners of a privately owned, mechanised food supply system, and also an attempted repudiation of it.

The rest of Africa is quickly “catching up” to this advanced backwardness, with the increasing rate of unplanned migration to urban centers due to loss of opportunities in community-based agriculture.

In Uganda for example, this process was driven by the intentional Museveni-led neo-liberal disruptions to the adapted system of community-based agriculture that has been built up in the country over a period of nearly eight decades.

Agricultural production remains at the heart of this struggle. The Africans sought to ensure that they continued to produce their indigenous food crops so as to retain food sovereignty, while at the same time engaging in the new cash crop economy that was encroaching on their land and labour power.

Official African policy within each African state, as well as in the regional economic blocs and the various policy and finance bodies (such as the African Development Bank), remain uncritically in support (or at least not opposed) to this general strategic direction.

What may be coming will be much grander in scale, out of both Western necessity and greed.

“Africa must start by treating agriculture as a business,” wrote African Development Bank (AfDB) President Dr Akinwumi Adesina, in African Business magazine in 2017.  “It must learn fast from experiences elsewhere, for example in south east Asia, where agriculture has been the foundation for fast-paced economic growth, built on a strong food processing and agro-industrial manufacturing base.”

Our official planners suffer from a tragic tendency of conflating any activity involving money and machines, with “development”. The intention is to duplicate life as it is almost universally led in the Western-style countries. They think is will bring “industrialisation”, and through that, jobs.

There are four significant conflicts or budding conflicts on the continent right now, in which arable land for mechanisation will increasingly become a factor. These are in southern Ethiopia, Congo and the whole Sahel zone, anchored on Nigeria (and Sudan), and Kenya.

If these developments are not challenged and stopped, Africa can look forward to environmental degradation, and nutritional poverty.

We will all become Africans in South Africa, and poor people in the West.

Assuming the Western industrial system lasts much longer. And that the planet also does.

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Politics

How Capitalism Uses and Abuses the Arts

The arts business is a very flawed, archaic and extremely exploitative model but artists continue to rely on corporate sponsorship, without questioning the shrinking spaces and opportunities for the arts to thrive.

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In my last piece, I talked about how our education system destroys the arts by corrupting the meaning of education, work and the arts. And I said that these lies that are perpetuated in the name of education come from the unholy and abusive marriage between education and business. (I have said elsewhere that this marriage should be annulled immediately.)

In this piece, I’m going to talk about how capitalist business is the prime beneficiary of the terrible state of the arts in Kenya.

​Businesses swing artists between two extremes. On one hand, which I already explained in my previous letter, the business (parasite) sector encourages the education system to degrade the arts, so that art does not look like real work that takes skill and resources. By doing that, the business sector justifies artists not being paid for their work. If you have noticed that you are not getting paid, or your payment is delayed, it is because of that madharau for the arts. The accountants cooking books look at you and think to themselves “Why should I pay someone for shaking around or singing for people? Even I could have done that work if I wasn’t here balancing books.”

On the other hand, capitalism does pay artists huge amounts of money, like we see in Hollywood where people like Oprah and Jay Z have become billionaires through entertainment.

In the end, artists are treated like battered spouses. One minute, a spouse is being abused and beaten, and the next minute, when the battered person has had enough, the abuser apologizes, swears how much they love the battered person and promises not to beat the spouse again. And the cycle starts again.

Art and wealth

The first thing to understand about the arts business is that it is a very flawed, archaic and extremely exploitative model. I will talk mainly about music, but book publishing and other types of art business work using the same principle.

Basically, the art business uses the rentier model, like a landlord. A landlord builds a house once but earns money on that house as long as he owns the right to that house. The “work” of living there, or the business carried out there, is done by other people, but the landlord earns a cut of that work despite doing no work. Simply because he owns the property in which the work was done.

And that is the same thing record labels and studios do. They provide initial capital and make the artist sign a 360-degree contract that allows the label to earn from everything the artist is involved in for the rest of the artist’s life: performance, recording, brand merchandise and even artistic license. An artist who is signed to a record label is an enslaved person. In the US, artists who are lucky earn 10 to 15 per cent of the revenues they generate for the music industry. The rest are unlucky and earn much less, if anything.

Imagine that. For every artist billionaire we know, their record label earns nine times more.

As an artist, you’re probably thinking, “Well, it may be exploitative but at least it works. Why can’t those exploiters come and work in Kenya?”

Actually, they are working here, and we know it. They have names like MCSK and Liberty Afrika. And the way these companies exploit artists is the same way other companies exploit everybody else in employment. The wages we earn are nothing compared to the profits that entitled, lazy and ignorant fat cats make from our work, and yet — as we see with the doctors — companies are constantly coming up with new schemes to avoid paying us for the work we do.

An artist who is signed to a record label is an enslaved person.

And we should not compare ourselves to the Queen Beys and Justin Beibers of the West; rather, we should be aware that even in the Westmany artists are exploited.

I tell my arts students that they should spend time in the university studying and imagining a different model for earning income from the arts. For instance, 360-degree contracts should be considered slavery and outlawed. Saying that every future income of an artist is tied to the initial capital invested in their recording is just as ridiculous as a food supplier to a restaurant saying that they should earn 90 per cent of every plate or meal served by the restaurant. Once the food is delivered and paid for, the contract should end there. Artists should pay studios, publishers and marketers separately as bills, not on promise of royalties.

But because my students have been told that education is only for jobs, none has ever taken up my challenge to think about this.

Virgin territory

There is another form of abuse and exploitation of artists that is less talked about because it is less easy to quantify. That is idea theft.

Through platforms like hubs, and through demanding proposals for shows and other performances, institutions exploits the artist’s energy and innovation, then pull the rug from under the artist and run off with the idea. That is why artists will start small concert gigs and before long, corporates, instead of sponsoring those gigs, create their own versions because they can pour in the money to make it big.

And these initially sustainable and indigenous ideas soon turn into monsters. These corporates invade natural parks like Hells Gate to sell even bigger than they should. Not only do they subvert eco-systems, they also crush their conservation opponents with media blitz and economic blackmail. What started as a Kenyan artistic initiative is not only hijacked but also turned into a short term, exploitative and destructive tsunami that dies almost as soon as it is born.

I tell my arts students that they should spend time in the university studying and imagining a different model for earning income from the arts.

Other artists report having given studios or media houses an idea for a show, leaving with a promise that they will hear from the producers. Within a few weeks, they see a bad version of the show they proposed. Is it a wonder that television entertainment is so unimaginative and poorly executed?

But this is the nature of capitalism: like a paedophile, it lets nothing mature and thrive. It instead derives a perverted sense of pleasure from exploiting the vulnerable and destroying budding ideas before the ideas develop to maturity.

Impunity and abuse

This paedophilia is replicated across all institutions. As someone recently said on Twitter, we are often employed on the promise of our ideas, upon which we are promptly frustrated and prevented from developing them.

No institution has escaped change and democratic supervision like the workplace. Workers around the world are succumbing to the abuse of the workplace, whether they are employed or not. Stress levels are high, and sexual bullying, mental illness, addiction and suicide are on the rise. The workplace has become a crime scene, where people get away with abuse and psychological torture.

But what is slightly unique about the arts is that when artists suffer from the same vices, the business world convinces us that this inhumanity is part of the artists’ creativity. That is why the high rate of depression and suicide among artists is not treated as a pandemic. When artists suffer violence such as being shot in clubs and being drugged and raped, we the abused and terrorized Kenyan public thinks that their abuse comes with the artistic territory.

In fact, we even accept that the business community does not treat artists as workers like other employees. Artists are not paid a salary, pension and benefits. They don’t go on leave. They are on the road all the time, or constantly searching for new gigs and new contracts, and never taking a break. The constant toil takes a toll on their minds and bodies and they start to use substances to stabilize their lives instead of getting some rest. Then there is the parasite industry of the paparazzi who make sales from intruding on artists’ lives and selling the details to the world.

The workplace has become a crime scene, where people get away with abuse and psychological torture.

But instead of us criminalizing these vices committed against artists, we let the business world convince us that this inhumanity is part of the artists’ creativity. That is utter nonsense.

Worse, the impunity also makes every new generation join the arts thinking that creativity requires criminality, substance abuse and insanity.

And the business sector has an evil, devilish interest in making literal murder and depravity acceptable for artists. Because of the power of the arts to free people, capitalism cannot let the arts thrive on their own, for the arts will inspire the people to challenge the tyranny of business by looking for alternative business models.

But at the same time, capitalism needs the power of the arts to manipulate people to behave in the interests of business. It puts the arts on a leash, so that the arts go only where capital wants the arts to go — to sedating the masses into accepting exploitation or into buying things.

And the artists, unfortunately, are joined to corporations at the hip and naively celebrate their reliance on corporate sponsorship, without questioning the shrinking spaces and opportunities for the arts to thrive.

And we artists need to understand that this abusive relationship is made possible by the hostility of the church. Instead of the church being our refuge in times of trouble, the clergy side with the state when the state crushes us through bans and censorship that are implemented in the name of morality.

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Politics

Laikipia Land Crisis: A Ticking Time Bomb

Historic land injustices, changing land ownership and use, and heightened competition for natural resources — exacerbated by the effects of climate change — make for a perfect storm.

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“Here we have a territory (now that the Uganda Railway is built) admirably suited for a white man’s country, and I can say this with no thought of injustice to any native race, for the country in question is either utterly uninhabited for miles and miles or at most its inhabitants are wandering hunters who have no settled home . . . .” Sir Harry Johnstone

There have been significant changes in the pattern of land ownership in Laikipia in the last two decades. These changes are set against a background of profound inequalities in land ownership in a county where, according to data in the Ministry of Lands, 40.3 per cent of the land is controlled by 48 individuals or entities. The changes have not brought about an improvement in the lives of the pastoralists and other indigenous communities who occupied Laikipia before colonisation. These groups — and the Maasai in particular, following their 1904 and 1911 treaties with the British — were forced out and relegated to reserves in southern Kenya to make way for the establishment of large commercial ranches owned by White settlers. Those indigenous inhabitants who remained were pushed by subsequent colonial legislation to Mukogodo in the north of the county, the driest part of Laikipia.

The pastoralists did not recover their land with the end of colonial rule. On the contrary, Jomo Kenyatta, the first president of Kenya, encouraged White settlers to remain after independence and today, some of the descendants of those settlers who decided to make Kenya their permanent home still occupy vast swathes of land in Laikipia County. Those who were unwilling to remain in Kenya under majority rule sold their land to the Kenyatta administration. As Catherine Boone, Fibian Lukalo and Sandra Joireman observe in Promised Land: Settlement Schemes in Kenya, 1962 to 2016,

With the approach of independence, the settler state and the British government stepped in to protect the interests of Kenya’s white land-owners by creating a land market for white settlers who wanted to sell their agricultural holdings, and supporting land values for those who wanted to stay. The buyer of most of these properties was the Government of Kenya, using loans provided by the British Government and the World Bank. Through this process, the Kenyan state acquired about half of the land in the (ex-) Scheduled Areas.

In 1968, under the World Bank-funded Kenya Livestock Development Programme — whose stated objective was “to increase beef production for home consumption and export mainly by subsistence pastoral groups” — the government enacted the Land (Group Representative) Act (Cap. 287) that saw the creation of 13 group ranches in the northern part of Laikipia, which is the driest part of the county. However, well-connected local elites helped themselves to part of the land, excised as individual ranches. There are 36 such individual ranches that should have been part of the group ranches.

Those ranches that were sold to the Kenyan government by the departing British settlers are within the expansive Laikipia plateau. The government later sold them to land buying companies formed by Kikuyus that in turn subdivided them into individual holdings. Examples of such lands include Kamnarok, Kimugandura, Kirimukuyu, Mathenge, Ireri and Endana, among others. The remaining land was gazetted as government land such ADC Mutara and Kirimon, or outspans such as Ngarendare and Mukogodo, which were used for finishing livestock for sale to the Kenya Meat Commission.

Land tenure and use

In the Kenyan context, and compared to other counties, the history of land in Laikipia County is unique, with a diversity of tenure systems each representing a unique system of production. The map below shows the different land use and tenure systems in Laikipia County that include large-scale ranches, large-scale farms, group ranches and smallholder farms.

There are 48 large-scale ranches sitting on 40.3 per cent of the total land area in Laikipia County, 9,532.2km², some of which are still owned by the descendants of the colonial settlers. The ranches  occupy huge tracts of land, the three largest being Laikipia Nature Conservancy with 107,000 acres, Ol Pejeta with 88,923.79 acres, and Loisaba with 62,092.97 acres.

Source: Ministry of Lands

Most of these large-scale ranches — many of which have an integrated economic system that includes livestock, horticulture, wildlife conservation and tourism — were acquired during the colonial period and legislation governing their ownership was taken from the colonial law and integrated into the constitution of independent Kenya under the land transfer agreement between the colonial government and the Kenyatta regime. It should be noted that the Maasai land campaign of 2004 pushing the government to address historical injustices following the forced ouster of Maasai from their ancestral lands in Laikipia, brought to light the fact that some of these ranches had no legal documents of ownership. In an article titled In the Grip of the Vampire State: Maasai Land Struggles in Kenyan Politics published in the Journal of Eastern African Studies, Parselelo Kantai observes,

Ranchers interviewed could not remember how long their own land-leases were supposed to last, were unaware of the Anglo-Maasai Agreement, and, in at least one case, were unable to produce title deeds to their ranches. And when opinion was expressed, it bordered on the absurd: the ‘invaders’, observed Ms Odile de Weck, who had inherited her father’s 3,600-acre Loldoto Farm, were not genuine — not Maasai at all. They were, she noted emphatically, Kikuyus. The Maasai, she said, had willingly ceded rights to Laikipia, had been compensated long ago and now resided happily in some other part of Kenya, far away.

Immediately following the campaign, the Ministry of Lands started putting out advertisements in the print media inviting those landowners whose leases were expiring to contact it.

Twenty-three large-scale farms occupy 1.48 per cent of the land in Laikipia County. These farms are mostly owned by individuals from the former Central Province who bought the land following sub-division by the Kenyatta administration, or through land buying companies, which opted not to sub-divide the land but to use it as collateral to access bank loans.

Source: Ministry of Lands

Smallholdings sit on 27.21 per cent of the total land area in Laikipia County. These farms were initially large-scale farms bought by groups of individuals who later sub-divided them into smallholdings of between two and five acres. There are three categories of farmers in this group: those who bought land and settled to escape land pressure in their ancestral homes, those who bought the land for speculative purposes, and those who bought land and used it as collateral for bank loans. A majority of the first group still live on their farms, practising subsistence, rain-fed agriculture. Most members of the other two groups are absentee landowners whose idle land has over time been occupied by pastoralists in search of water and pasture for their animals, or by squatters seeking to escape the population pressure in the group ranches. In some cases, pastoralists have bought the idle land and have title.

The 13 group ranches cover 7.45 per cent of the total Laikipia land area and are occupied by pastoralists who use them for communal grazing. However, some of the group ranches such as Il Ngwesi, Kijabe, Lekurruki and Koija have also established wildlife conservancies and built tourist lodges.

Laikipia land use.

Source: CETRAD

Changing land ownership, changing landscapes

Since the late 1990s, when agitation for political reforms and a new constitution began in earnest, and in the intervening period, new patterns of land ownership and land use have been emerging in Laikipia County.

Data from the Laikipia County Government indicates that 16 of the 48 large-scale ranches have been internally sub-divided into units of between 3,000 and 4,000 acres, with the land rates due for each sub-division paid according to the size of the sub-division. The sub-divisions are made through private arrangements and do not appear in the records at the Ministry of Lands. There are claims that the sub-divided parcels have been ceded to European retirees looking to acquire land for holiday homes in Laikipia, and to White Zimbabweans. There are also claims that the large, palatial, private residences that have sprung up within the sub-divided parcels are in fact tourist destinations for a high-end clientele in a business that operates outside Kenya’s tourism regulatory framework and violates Kenya tax laws.

In the Kenyan context, and compared to other counties, the history of land in Laikipia County is unique, with a diversity of tenure systems each representing a unique system of production.

Whatever the case, the County Government of Laikipia confirms, “Most of the white settlers buying property are soldiers or tourists who loved the [county’s] climate, its people and natural beauty and want to experience it all over again. Big time investors [sic] in real estate flock the area, either to buy or construct multi-million shilling holiday homes, targeting wealthy European settlers and tourists.”

The Laikipia County Government also confirms that the large-scale ranches have also been leasing training grounds to the British Army Training Unit Kenya (BATUK), adding, “In 2009 BATUK expanded these grounds to 11 privately owned ranches, including Sosian, Ol Maisor and the Laikipia Nature Conservancy.”

Multinationals have also moved in, buying up the large-scale farms, particularly those situated near permanent sources of water, where they have set up horticultural businesses growing crops for export to the European market. The arrival of export horticulture in Laikipia has increased competition for resources as “agro-industrial horticulture, pastoralism and small holder agriculture compete for land, capital, and water, with access to water being particularly hotly contested.”

Absentee owners of smallholdings that have over time been occupied by squatters are also selling their land. With the help of brokers and officials from the Ministry of Lands, the smallholdings are consolidated and sold to individuals and companies who may not be aware that the land is occupied and that the sale could be a potential source of conflict.

Only the group ranches — which are occupied by pastoralists who use traditional grazing management techniques — have not changed hands and remain intact. They are, however, facing pressure from a growing population, intensive grazing and increasingly frequent droughts that are putting a strain on the natural resources.

On the other hand, most of the land gazetted as government land has been grabbed by senior government officials, politicians and military personnel. Of the 36 government outspans, only four remain. Outspans neighbouring large-scale ranches have been grabbed by the ranch managers and such grabbed land has since changed hands and been acquired by individuals.

Where farmers were settled in forests during the era of former President Daniel arap Moi, forest cover was plundered for timber and the forest floor given over to cultivation. When President Mwai Kibaki succeeded Moi, these farmers were constantly under threat of eviction but they continue to occupy the forests to date. There are, however, intact forest reserves where on-going human activity has not had a negative impact. They are used and managed by pastoralists as grazing lands, or managed by conservation groups, or by the government.

Impact of change of ownership on other livelihood groups 

Land deals are coming to compound an already existing multiplicity of problems related to the access, use and management of scarce resources in Laikipia County. Compared to neighbouring counties, in the past Laikipia received moderate rainfall and severe droughts like those experienced in 2009, in 2017 and now in 2021 were the exception. This attracted pastoralists from Baringo, Samburu and Isiolo counties to settle in the county in search of water and pasture for their livestock.

Over time, land pressure in central Kenya also forced subsistence farmers to move and settle in Laikipia, practicing rain-fed agriculture and keeping small herds of sheep, goats and cattle. This has led to competition for space and resources that has been compounded by frequent and increasingly severe droughts in recent years.

“The Maasai, she said, had willingly ceded rights to Laikipia, had been compensated long ago and now resided happily in some other part of Kenya, far away.”

The consolidation of smallholdings belonging to absentee owners where land that had previously been sub-divided into units of between two and five acres is now being merged to form bigger units of 500 acres and above, sold off and fenced is further reducing the land available to pastoralists and to squatters who have been using such idle land to graze livestock and grow crops, leaving them with limited options and leading to an increase in levels of vulnerability as they have to rely on relief food in order to survive.

The smallholder land consolidation process, which is being undertaken by former ranch managers who are brokering for individual buyers, is also blamed for the over-exploitation of natural resources in some areas and their conservation in others. In those areas occupied by farming communities, forest cover has been exploited either for charcoal burning, firewood or timber production as people look for alternative sources of livelihood. In the smallholdings where pastoralists have title, overgrazing of the rangelands due to constrained mobility does not allow the range to regenerate. This in turn has led to the degradation of the land and the emergence of unpalatable invasive species of plants like prosopis that render grazing areas unusable, further compounding the problem of access to pasture in the few areas left for pastoralists to graze.

In the group ranches, the most degraded rangelands are overrun with opuntia stricta, an invasive species of cactus whose fruit is harmful to livestock and has caused “economic losses in excess of US$500 in 48% of households in Laikipia”.

On the other hand, in the large-scale ranches, large farms, consolidated smallholder farms and group ranches where conservation and resource use fall under the intensive management of a few individuals, the availability of resources is assured even during times of stress. However, the availability of resources for one group of users and the lack of resources for another often leads to conflict as those without poach from those who have them. One example is when pastoralists graze illegally in the large-scale ranches whenever there is scarcity in their own areas, leading to arrests and sometimes confiscation of livestock from the pastoralists by government agencies in an attempt to protect the large-scale ranches.

Historical injustices and government failures

Article 60 of the Constitution of Kenya 2010 guarantees equitable access to land and security of land rights. Further, Article 68(c)(1) states, “Parliament shall enact legislation to prescribe minimum and maximum land holding acreages in respect of private land.” Parliament has failed to pass such legislation and, indeed, the government has shied away from addressing historical land injustices in Kenya in general and in Laikipia – where they are most visible – in particular. Policy makers rarely discuss justice in the context of land reform and what has taken place are land law reforms in lieu of the essential land reforms that would confront the material consequences of unequal access to land. As Ambreena Manji observes in her paper Whose Land is it Anyway?,

The consequences of a legalistic approach to land reform are starkly evident in Kenya’s new land laws. First and foremost, it foreclosed debates about redistribution, prioritising land law reform as the most effective way to address land problems and so evading more difficult questions about who controls access to land how a more just distribution might be achieved.

The recent violence that visited death and destruction on parts of Laikipia is a continuation and an escalation of a crisis that first came to a head in May 2000 when pastoralists drove their livestock into Loldaiga farm. Then the Moi government intervened and allowed the pastoralists into the Mt Kenya and Aberdare forests while big ranchers supported the government by allowing some animals onto their ranches.

In 2004, pastoralists again occupied commercial ranches while agitating for the non-renewal of land leases which they believed had expired. This time the Kibaki government used force to dislodge them. However, the question of land leases remains unresolved to date. Outbreaks of violence have become more frequent since 2009, caused by a combination of factors including the effects of climate change and increasingly frequent droughts that force pastoralists from neighbouring Baringo, Isiolo and Samburu into Laikipia in search of water and pasture. This inevitably leads to conflicts with ranchers onto whose land they drive their animals.

Population pressure, from both humans and livestock, is another cause of conflict in Laikipia. The carrying capacity of group ranches is stretched to the limit while it is plenty on neighbouring commercial ranches. Moreover, population migration to Laikipia from neighbouring counties is placing additional pressure on resources.

The sub-divisions are made through private arrangements and do not appear in the records at the Ministry of Lands.

The proliferation of small arms in the county has added to the insecurity; pastoralists from neighbouring counties invade and occupy commercial ranches, conservancies, smallholdings and forests armed with sophisticated weapons. Laikipia pastoralists have also acquired weapons both to defend themselves and their animals and to invade other land.

Politicians have since 2009 also been encouraging pastoralists from neighbouring counties to move to Laikipia on promises of protection in exchange for votes. There are also claims that politicians have been helping the pastoralists to acquire arms and that most of the livestock being grazed in private ranches and farms belongs to senior government officials and politicians who have exerted pressure on the government not to act on the pastoralists.

In the twilight of another Kenyatta government, relations between the commercial farmers and ranchers, the pastoralists and the smallholders remain poor and there is a lot of suspicion among them, with each group acting as an isolated entity. But for how long can the big commercial ranches and large-scale farms continue to thrive in the midst of poor farmers and dispossessed pastoralists?

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