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FROM INMATE TO PRESIDENT: Bemba’s star is shining but he could still be denied the presidency

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After a decade in prison, it would take an abundance of optimism to say that the opposition leader is on the cusp of ascending to DR Congo’s highest office. By WAIRAGALA WAKABI

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FROM INMATE TO PRESIDENT: Bemba’s star is shining but he could still be denied the presidency
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Jean-Pierre Bemba is the man of the moment. He recently won a huge, unlikely acquittal at the International Criminal Court (ICC), returned home to the Democratic Republic of the Congo without hassle after a decade in jail in Europe, and lodged his papers to run for president in a poll in which the incumbent, President Joseph Kabila, won’t be running.

Veteran opposition leader Étienne Tshisekedi, who stood for president in December 2011 on the ticket of a coalition of parties and lost with 32 per cent of the votes, died in February last year. His son, Félix Tshisekedi, took over the mantle of the country’s leading opposition party, the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) and remains the favoured opposition candidate to succeed Kabila as president. But Bemba might just overtake him. With Kabila himself not standing, Bemba is a strong contender among an opposition line-up that looks the favourite relative to Kabila’s candidate, former interior minister, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary.

Another leading opposition contender, Moise Katumbi, has been locked out of running by state authorities, further brightening Bemba’s prospects of clinching the top seat in the troubled central African country. And yet, it would take an abundance of optimism to say that Bemba is on the cusp of becoming DR Congo’s president, as events in Kinshasa and in The Hague, over which he lacks control, could extinguish his prospects for election come December.

Bemba, 55, founded the Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC) rebel group in 1998 with support and training from the government of Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni. He was 35years- old. The son of Jeannot Bemba Saolona, a powerful businessman, Bemba went on to become a successful entrepreneur himself.

Two decades ago, the MLC was one of a myriad of groups supported by Rwanda and Uganda to fight the government of Laurent-Désiré Kabila, Joseph Kabila’s father, whom the two countries had supported to grab power from veteran despot Mobutu Sese Seko in 1997. The MLC turned out to be the most stable of these groups, establishing extensive administrative control and public services (such as courts of law, health centres, and schools) in the large part of the country that it controlled. Having transformed itself into a political party, the MLC remains a major player in Congo’s politics, and is by far the most visible of the former rebel groups-turned political parties.

Under the power-sharing agreement aimed at ending the fighting, Bemba became one of Congo’s four vice presidents in 2003. He went on to contest elections three years later, emerging second to Kabila. The decade he has been away in The Hague has taken a toll on his party, and on his personal profile, and yet the time seems just right for him to be back to have another go at the presidency.

But there are various odds stacked against his candidacy, some of which he may not easily navigate.

Under the power-sharing agreement aimed at ending the fighting, Bemba became one of Congo’s four vice presidents in 2003. He went on to contest elections three years later, emerging second to Kabila. The decade he has been away in The Hague has taken a toll on his party, and on his personal profile, and yet the time seems just right for him to be back to have another go at the presidency.

First, we look at his prospects.

1. Riding the Kabila unpopularity vote

Joseph Kabila is hugely unpopular. His dogged attempt to defy the constitution and stand for a third term, his inefficient government that has failed to root out armed militia groups, his lukewarm response to rampant corruption in the public service, and his dithering as security forces killed peaceful protesters for months, all made him a hated figure among the electorate. Whereas Kabila has finally declared that he will not run, his unpopularity will necessarily rub off the ruling coalition’s candidate.

According to results of a nationally representative poll published in February, only 10 per cent of respondents would vote for Kabila if he stood for president, and in what is known as his last stronghold, only 37 per cent would vote for the incumbent. Moreover, the unpopularity is shared by other senior government officials and the elections commission. A large majority of respondents (70 per cent) had an unfavourable opinion of Prime Minister Bruno Tshibala – the same for Joseph Olenghankoy, who heads the committee implementing the agreement reached by government and the opposition in the lead-up to the elections.

In power since January 2001 when he replaced his assassinated father, Kabila has few successes to point to. His refusal to step down ahead of the elections and to fully implement the December 31, 2016 agreement signed between the opposition and the government did not endear him to voters. And his decision not to run in the December polls does not do much to improve his ruling coalition’s chances. As interior minister between 2016 and February 2018, Shadary oversaw the forceful repression of demonstrations and arrests of activists and opposition politicians. That did not earn him many admirers.

2. How the ICC trials boost Bemba’s chances

Whereas many Congolese nationals support the work of the ICC, a great number are frustrated with the fact that trials take way too long (it took ten years from Bemba’s arrest for his trial to be concluded with an acquittal on appeal). More distinctly, many Congolese citizens have always felt that Bemba’s arrest and prosecution was politically motivated – that it was meant to keep him away from Congo’s politics.

The criticism that Kabila conspired with “Western powers” to try Bemba has been around for several years, with one respected 2012 research report showing many Congolese believing that Bemba was “targeted”. The report added: “Many Congolese see his arrest as evidence that the court is being used as an instrument by the Congolese government to undermine its rivals. Whether or not this is the case, the action by the court removed a major political player from the scene ahead of the recent 2011 presidential elections, substantially weakening the challenge to President Kabila.”

Similarly, Bemba is likely to receive the support of those who feel sympathy for his perceived wrongful prosecution. Indeed, poll results released on July 31, 2018 by the Congo Research Group based at the Center on International Cooperation at New York University, indicated that Bemba’s popularity had gone up 16 per cent since last November, as 83 percent of respondents “thought his acquittal was a good thing.”

The criticism that Kabila conspired with “Western powers” to try Bemba has been around for several years, with one respected 2012 research report showing many Congolese believing that Bemba was “targeted”. The report added: “Many Congolese see his arrest as evidence that the court is being used as an instrument by the Congolese government to undermine its rivals…”

There have been longstanding questions among Congolese critics of the court as to why, for instance, former Central African Republic president Ange-Félix Patassé was not tried with Bemba, or instead of him. As president, Patassé invited the MLC into his country to help him fight a coup attempt, and it was while the Congolese rebel troops and Central African forces were fighting the insurgents that the crimes over which Bemba was tried in The Hague were committed. Others wondered why senior MLC commanders who were in the CAR were not tried, as it was deemed that they bore more control over the group’s troops deployed in that country.

Nonetheless, as one close Congolese observer has pointed out, for some Congolese the acquittal merely highlights what in their minds is the injustice of the original decision to prosecute Bemba. According to her, even if Bemba is not allowed to run, he could make a significant impact on the electoral outcome by endorsing another candidate.

3. The potential opposition unity

There are strong indications that if the opposition fronted a united candidate, it would garner more votes than Kabila’s candidate. Opinion poll results showed at the end of July that the three main opposition candidates each had between 17 per cent and 19 per cent of the vote, while candidates from the ruling coalition would get a combined total of 19 per cent. At the very least, these results seem to show that, in a credible election, the ruling party’s candidate would not be the winner of a majority of votes; and if the top three opposition contenders front a common candidate, that candidate would have a smooth sail to the presidency.

The big question, however, is whether the opposition will throw its weight behind a single candidate. History does not favour this prospect. The DRC is a large country, with 46 million registered voters, more than 400 political parties, some of which have regional interests and whose agendas do not easily coalesce with those of national parties. That makes it difficult to forge national coalitions.

But the prospect of wrenching power from the ruling coalition could just push the political actors to put personal ambitions aside. Kabila has not always won by huge margins. In 2006, he took 44 per cent of votes in the first round, before getting elected with 58 per cent of the vote in a run-off against Bemba. In the last elections of 2011, he won with 48.95 per cent.

Who then should be the opposition candidate? Whereas Bemba has a loyal base in the country, his decade-long absence has seen a significant slide in the proportion of his party’s representation in parliament, with many senior party members decamping.

Currently, Tshisekedi has a better rating at the polls, and leads a larger party than the MLC. However, he is a political novice compared to Bemba, who has been vice president and senator, and has useful networks in some neighbouring countries, notably Uganda. His experience as the leader of a large rebel group, most of whose members were integrated into the national army, also means that at least a section of the military could find him more acceptable. With Katumbi out of the running, Bemba only has Tshisekedi to overtake as the leading opposition contender.

Currently, Tshisekedi has a better rating at the polls, and leads a larger party than the MLC. However, he is a political novice compared to Bemba, who has been vice president and senator, and has useful networks in some neighbouring countries, notably Uganda.

Bemba needs to court leading opposition actors, not least his former party members that have since moved on, and other key actors, including Vital Kamerhe, who took 7.7 per cent of the presidential vote in 2011. Moreover, Bemba’s prospects would improve further if he won an alliance with church groups that spearheaded the protests against Kabila’s third term project, as well as youth movements such as LUCHA and Filimbi.

The above notwithstanding, there are various factors that could still stand in the way of a Bemba presidency.

4. The upcoming sentencing at the ICC

In June this year, appeals judges at the ICC acquitted Bemba of war crimes and crimes against humanity after trial judges had convicted him in 2016 and handed him an 18-year prison sentence. The acquittal paved the way for his interim release to Belgium, where he has a residence, before he returned to Congo on August 1, after being away for 11 years.

The case for which Bemba was acquitted is one of two that he has faced at the court. In the first case, he was tried for failing to stop or punish his MLC soldiers who committed rape, murder, and pillaging in the CAR during 2002 and 2003. Although he was not in the CAR himself, he was tried under the principle of “command responsibility” whereby superiors are responsible for the actions of their subordinates.

Whereas that case was settled with finality when Bemba was acquitted last June, the conviction for the second case was confirmed by a separate appeals chamber. The sentence will be announced in the coming months. In the second case, judges found that Bemba and his former lawyers bribed witnesses to give false testimony on behalf of Bemba. Initially, judges had handed Bemba a one-year sentence and a fine of €300,000, but the appeals chamber ordered that a fresh sentence be pronounced since there were errors made in the initial sentencing. The prosecution is asking that Bemba be handed a maximum prison term permissible for this offence, namely five years, and that he should be sent back to the ICC detention centre to serve the sentence out.

It is unlikely that Bemba will be handed a five-year jail term, or that he will be sent back to the detention centre for a period longer than a few months. His lawyers argue that even if he were handed the maximum sentence, the four years and six months he spent in detention from the time the warrant for his arrest for witness tampering was issued should be subtracted from any prison term he may be required to serve. The defence also argues that the time he has already served is proportionate to the offences for which he was convicted.

Ultimately, it remains to be seen whether the judges will hand Bemba a custodial sentence – which could undermine his presidential campaign – or whether they will only issue a monetary fine.

5. Fighting the power of incumbency

Given the power of incumbency and the large network of patronage in the civil service, in the military and even in many provincial administrations, Shadary has huge advantages. It means Kabila’s party can use the largesse accumulated from siphoning off state resources in a state short on accountability mechanisms to run a large-scale campaign and to bribe voters to vote for the ruling coalition’s candidate.

Moreover, the state has the opportunity to steal the election through the bloated voters’ roll, or by manipulating the electronic voting machines that are being introduced. The electoral body is not trusted to conduct free and fair polls, according to research, while courts of law may not impartially arbitrate electoral disputes.

The state of insecurity and the poor transport networks exacerbate the headaches which opposition candidates must endure to reach large parts of the country. That’s a challenge the ruling party does not share in equal measure. Nonetheless, Bemba has been known to have deep pockets and equally well-heeled backers, which means he could put up a more serious campaign in this regard relative to other contenders.

The state of insecurity and the poor transport networks exacerbate the headaches which opposition candidates must endure to reach large parts of the country. That’s a challenge the ruling party does not share in equal measure. Nonetheless, Bemba has been known to have deep pockets and equally well-heeled backers, which means he could put up a more serious campaign in this regard relative to other contenders.

Moreover, as stated earlier, the incumbency could in many respects prove to be a monkey on Shadary’s back, given the unpopularity of Kabila and the dysfunctionality of his government.

6. The government could derail’s Bemba’s bid

Will the Congo government invoke legal reasons to derail Bemba’s presidential bid? Following the close of presidential nominations on August 8, the electoral commission will announce on September 19 the list of candidates approved to run.

Prior to Bemba’s return to Congo, a spokesperson of the ruling coalition suggested that the former vice president should not be allowed to run for president due to his conviction for witness tampering. He cited Article 10 of the Congolese electoral law, which stipulates that a person guilty of corruption is not eligible to stand as a candidate in electoral processes. According to the spokesperson, the conviction at the ICC amounted to corruption and Bemba should, therefore, not be allowed to stand.

Given the challenge Bemba poses to the ruling coalition’s hold on power, it is likely that a challenge to his eligibility will be presented before the constitutional court. How that would pan out is unknown.

Prior to Bemba’s return to Congo, a spokesperson of the ruling coalition suggested that the former vice president should not be allowed to run for president due to his conviction for witness tampering. He cited Article 10 of the Congolese electoral law, which stipulates that a person guilty of corruption is not eligible to stand as a candidate in electoral processes. According to the spokesperson, the conviction at the ICC amounted to corruption and Bemba should, therefore, not be allowed to stand.

A second legal challenge to Bemba could arise from events in the weeks before he fled to Brussels in early 2007. At the time, the DRC’s attorney general had asked the senate to revoke Bemba’s immunity so that he could be charged for treason. The alleged treason resulted from deadly clashes earlier that year between Bemba’s loyalist troops and mainstream government forces. With the Congo government not averse to inventing charges to dog opponents (the same move used to block Katumbi from running for president), it is possible that the alleged treason charges from 2007 could be resurrected.

However, the fact that Bemba was allowed to return, was allowed free movement in the country where huge crowds welcomed him, with police securing his movements, could signal that the government may not slap charges against him. Barring Bemba from running could also be a recipe for civil disobedience, which the government might want to avoid.

Kabila knows that the eyes of much of the world are trained on him, not least those of the United States government, which has openly pushed him into not standing for re-election, so he might try to play fair after all. As it is, Bemba’s star is shining brightest than it ever did in the last decade, but whether this will be a false dawn remains to be seen.

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Wairagala Wakabi, PhD, has covered the Congo conflict since 1998 and has from 2009 monitored trials at the International Criminal Court.

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Moving to the Metropole: Migration as Revolution

In an act that should be seen as revolutionary, Africans are moving to the centre to benefit from the resources that continue to be extracted from their continent.

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When African students and other black persons escaping Ukraine at the start of the Ukraine-Russia conflict were being ejected from exiting transport (trains and busses) and denied entry into neighbouring Poland, many Africans were enraged with the shameless display of racism. One of these Africans was a middle-aged man from Congo—must have been a graduate student—only recently settled in Germany. Seated inside a café at the Berlin central train station with five of his German and British friends, he exploded: “One wonders how they built all these things? From where did you get all this money? Look where we are, this Hauptbahnof [main train station] must have consumed a fortune. The vehicles you make? No way!” His monologue lasted a while as his friends listened either in agreement or disbelief: “This is our money,” he went on.  “This is why you never stop these civil wars on the continent only to treat us like sub-humans. But we will not stop coming, whatever the cost!” he declared. His voice sounded austere, choked with emotion. None of his friends volunteered an immediate response. Then one said, this Ukraine situation is embarrassing.

While the angry tirade was sparked by the treatment of Africans trying to escape a war zone, clearly, this man had thought about all this stuff for some time. He must have been educated or observant enough to make the connections between the extraction back home in the DRC, the endless violent wars, the resources in Europe (as coming from his home), and the racist treatment of his kindred who otherwise deserve some respect for sustaining the beautiful lifestyles and infrastructures of the western world. Had he listened to Mallence Bart-Williams’ viral TEDx Talk? The story of this Congolese man, whom I will call Tshibumba Matulu (after the painter Tshibumba Matulu that Dutch anthropologist, Johannes Fabian writes about in Remembering the Present) is the story of “the metropole and the periphery” that dependency theorists Samir Amin, Immanuel Wallerstein and Andre Gunder Frank developed in the 1970s and 1980s. The last line of his vitriol is interesting enough in the sense that now, Africans are seeking to see the world as one whole and thus determined to move to the centre—follow up on and seek to enjoy their resources—at whatever cost. Indeed, despite the innumerable roadblocks (immigration laws, expensive and convoluted visa processes, slave traders in the Maghreb, drowning in the Mediterranean, rank racism, and Islamophobia in the western world), Africans are moving to the centre, to the metropole, en masse. They are determined to follow up on their resources.

This is the story of both the open and disguised violence of neoliberalism, where Africa is heavily mined on the cheap, exploited through unequal exchange, climate/conservation colonialism, with the proceeds coming from African human and natural resources being stolen through inexplicable claims of value addition. This point of view has been recently, succinctly and loudly expressed by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in her fight with French President Emmanuel Macron over immigration policies in Europe. Known for her anti-immigrant policies, Meloni’s (selfish) position is that if the French stopped stealing resources from 14 African countries through the clearly colonial and extortionist CFA, Africans would not be forced to make the dangerous journeys to Europe (where, by implication, they come to follow up on their resources, which are violently extracted leaving behind absolute poverty and suffering). In that viral clip doing the rounds across the globe, Meloni concludes that the solution to stop Africans from moving from their country to Europe is to leave them alone and have them receive the full benefit of their God-given resources:

So, the solution is not to take Africans and bring them to Europe, the solution is to free Africa from certain Europeans [especially France] who exploit it and allow these people to live off what they have.

While this message seemed directed at the French, the spread of (both violent and structural) capitalism across the African continent is real and threatening. With the collapse of the African economies about 30 years ago (via structural adjustment programmes), where foreign-owned companies returned under the neoliberal order and took over Africa’s major resources or the pillars upon which these economies stood—mineral resources (gold, oil, coffee, diamonds), banking, telecommunications, selling of agricultural products which used to be a function of cooperatives and direct government help—the continent has been left in a clear condition of morbidity. The bold choice, which I argue should be seen as revolutionary, is to move to the centre and demand the benefits of the resources that have been endlessly stolen from the continent, violently and through disguised extractivist structures.

***

Being a Congolese from Goma, Tshibumba Matulu must have witnessed the scramble for Congolese resources by the rich and mighty of the western world very up-close and personal—Dan Gertler International (DGI), Glencore Plc. and Alain Goetz, all of whom have a strong foothold in the country’s mining sector. These multinational companies own almost all the mining sites in the DRC, and have been implicated in the unending violence in the country, which is connected to the ways in which resources are mined. Take South Sudan as the other example where Glencore has a strong foothold in South Sudanese oil. In early November 2022, Glencore Plc. executives were found guilty of bribing the South Sudanese leadership—starting just four weeks after the country’s independence—as “they sought to profit from political turmoil . . . they inserted themselves into government-to-government deals that had been negotiated at preferential rates”.  The Africa Progress Panel estimated that in a period of two years (2010-2012), DRC lost US$1.3 billion in asset sales to DGI. A 2021 study showed that DRC risked losing US$3.71 billion to controversial Israeli businessman Dan Gertler. This is a lot of money—which ends up in Israel where Gertler is one of the richest men and has been controversially implicated in a thousand scandals in Congo. To understand the fact that modern extraction follows a colonial model, one has to appreciate the fact that colonialism’s extraction was and is always outsourced to corporations. King Leopold operated in his individual capacity as a businessman, using his loot to build estates, infrastructures and palaces in Belgium (and not on the African continent). That an independent businessman, Dan Gertler, would promise guns to a government and actually deliver on his promise exposes the ways in which governments in the west outsource businessmen to colonise Africa on their behalf.

These multinational companies own almost all the mining sites in the DRC, and have been implicated in the unending violence in the country.

Dependency theory so succinctly exposed the roots and execution of underdevelopment in Black Africa, which is, in brief, resources being extracted on the cheap from the periphery (Africa), to be moved and generate more value in the metropole. If these resources ever come back to the continent (Latin America or Africa), they return more expensively. In this periphery-metropole dichotomy, endless capitalist exploitation (which mostly thrives on violence) not only depletes resources and opportunities at the periphery, but also makes life unliveable and unbearable. It then enacts tougher controls to keep the peoples of the periphery at the periphery so that they do not move to the metropole and overwhelm its amenities. This is why African journeys to the metropole are not only dangerous, but are also defined by more drama that tends to generate an incredible amount of grim news broadcasts. Dependency theory does not explicitly follow up on the revolutionary journeys where the exploited—like Tshibumba Matulu—painstakingly seek the benefits of their resources in the metropole. This is perhaps because it pursued another route out of this colonial conundrum, which was to de-link the metropole from the periphery.

Capitalism’s violence, revolutionary journeys

Transiting through airports in Dubai or Doha, one will encounter East African languages, especially Kiswahili and Luganda. Manning a counter in twos or threes, staff tend to speak to each other in their languages. While duty stations may not be allocated depending on the mutual native linguistic intelligibility between workers, since all speak English, somehow, workers from the same Great Lakes linguistic community find themselves together. That the numbers of labour migrants moving to the Middle East have soared over the past years is not just testament to the availability of job opportunities in the Middle East, but also to the dire conditions in which they live in their countries—conditions made difficult by the capitalist neoliberal reforms of the 1980s, and in some cases by conflict (especially in Northern Uganda, Karamoja, Turkana areas, South Sudan and Somalia). Middle Eastern salaries are not the greatest attraction as they range between US$600 and US$900 depending on seniority (far much less for domestic work). But that the same amounts cannot be earned back home speaks more to the dire conditions at home.

Data from the Uganda Ministry of Gender, Labour and Social Development published in the Daily Monitor, indicates that for the last six years (2016-2022), an average of 24,086 Ugandans left the country annually in search of employment, especially in the Middle East. What makes conditions so hostile in the Great Lakes Region?  Besides Somalia and Central African Republic—where there is outright violence—why is the scale of movement of young people in particular so high in the Great Lakes region? It is the ravages of both internal capitalism (by the petty bourgeoisies) and foreign capital moving from South Africa northwards, but also coming from Europe and North America—and China exploiting the neoliberal environment. This is evident in cases of land grabbing, forced evictions, refugee crises caused by resource wars, especially in DRC and South Sudan, and the terrible business environment in the region.

Dependency theory does not explicitly follow up on the revolutionary journeys where the exploited painstakingly seek the benefits of their resources in the metropole.

Theoretically and practically, without the violence of the state and other related state actors, it is difficult for capitalism to reproduce itself.  States do not only set the conditions under which extraction occurs (such as banking regimes, neoliberal regimes), but they are also ready to commit violence on the exploited. In Uganda, cases of land grabbing by local capitalists have made land ownership and agriculture difficult. In other cases, collusion between the state and foreign capitalists to evict peasants off their lands is causing first, rural urban-migration, and then journeys abroad. Among the most memorable cases is that of the 2001 evictions in Mubende where the German coffee company Neumann Gruppe used outright violence (with the help of the state), including shooting, burning houses and animals, and maiming people to create way for a coffee plantation. Over 2,000 families remain destitute and are yet to find justice. Faced with mass unemployment, extortionist banking regimes with high interest rates that have stymied creativity and made business difficult across East Africa, many young people struggle to start thriving businesses.

Violent evictions have also taken place in Kenya and Tanzania to create way for capitalist expansion or capitalist ostentation (Franz Fanon warned that political elites would turn the continent into an entertainment centre for foreign capitalists). This is the story in Samburu where evictions have taken place to create way for American charities. It is the story of the green colonialism that led to the Ogiek and Maasai evictions from the Mau Forest in the name of conservation. Guillaume Blanc’s recently published book, The Invention of Green Colonialism, demonstrates how the rhetoric of conservation (by colonially founded organisations including UNESCO, WWF, IUCN) perpetuates a colonial model of conservation that privileges animals and plants over humans. While capitalists in Europe and North America—consuming endlessly—have destroyed nature, they have maintained a mythical, fictionalised Eden in Africa, insisting that peasants, who have developed ways of coexisting with nature, who eat very little meat, have neither cars, nor computers nor smartphones, are a danger to the environment. They are evicted from huge swathes of land that are then reserved for white people to hunt and gaze at wild animals.

Away from the forests and the plains, the poor are also being “cleansed” from the capital cities. The 2021 Mukuru Kwa Njega eviction in Nairobi that left 40,000 people homeless is etched in the memories of Kenyans. In what Mwaura Mwangi aptly termed “Demolition Colonialism”, thousands of poor Nairobians have had their houses demolished so that the rich can enjoy easy transit. This is not anti-development position, but rather a reading that seeks to recognise the rights of the poor, and make visible the history of slums in major cities across Africa.

Theoretically and practically, without the violence of the state and other related state actors, it is difficult for capitalism to reproduce itself.

Then come the wars in the DRC, Somalia, CAR, and South Sudan—a product of business dealings by multinationals including Glencore and CNOOC, among others— that have led to an increase in refugees numbers, now reaching 2.3 million people according to UNHCR. In his book Saviours and Survivors, Mahmood Mamdani implicates CNOOC and ExxonMobil in protecting oil wells using different rebel groups in the Sudan-South Sudan conflict. The end product of these clandestine oil dealings are the over 1.5 million refugees hosted in Uganda, making it the country with the largest number of refugees in the world. The influx of people escaping resource-related conflicts has overwhelmed resources in the Great Lakes region.  And while many of the refugees will stay in the region, many others are making the journey to the Middle East, to Europe and to North America.

With all this aggressive capitalist expansion manifesting in different forms, the African in the Great Lakes (and other places on the continent) is left with no choice but to make the journey to Europe and to North America. I want to read these journeys not just as migration, but as revolution. They might seem puny, unorganised and migrating out of desperate need, but Africans are moving to the centre to benefit from the resources that continue to be extracted from their continent. This is how the extractors perceive these journeys—not as migration, but as revolution—which explains why there are so many roadblocks along the way.

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The Campaign that Remembered Nothing and Forgot Nothing

Once a master of coalition building, Raila Odinga killed his own party and brand, handed over his backyard to William Ruto, threw in his lot with Uhuru Kenyatta, ended up being branded a “state project”, and lost.

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The Original sin

A seasoned Nairobi politician, Timothy Wanyonyi had cut a niche for himself in the Nairobi governor’s race that was filled with a dozen candidates who had up to that point not quite captured the imagination of Nairobians. Some candidates were facing questions over their academic qualifications while others were without a well-defined public profile. In that field Wanyonyi, an experienced Nairobi politician, stood out. On 19th April, the Westlands MP’s campaign team was canvasing for him in Kawangware. They had sent pictures and videos to news teams seeking coverage. But that evening their candidate would receive a phone call to attend a meeting at State House Nairobi that would put an end to his campaign. Before Tim made his way to State House, insiders around President Uhuru Kenyatta told reporters that Wanyonyi was out of the Nairobi governor’s race.

Wanyonyi’s rallying call “Si Mimi, ni Sisi”—a spin on US Senator Bernie Sanders’ “Not me. Us” 2020 presidential campaign slogan—distinguished him as a candidate who understood the anxieties of Nairobians. “They were looking for someone who would see the city as a home first, before seeing it as a business centre,” one of his political consultants told me. But the Azimio coalition to which Wanyonyi’s ODM party belonged was very broad, with several centres of power that didn’t take into account—or maybe didn’t care about— Nairobi’s political landscape. Wanyonyi’s candidacy was hastily sacrificed at the altar of the coalition’s politics. Former President Uhuru Kenyatta, the coalition’s chairman, had prevailed on Raila Odinga, its presidential candidate, to essentially leave Nairobi to Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party in exchange for ODM picking the presidential candidate.

That was the only consideration on the table.

However, it was a miscalculation by the coalition. Azimio failed to appreciate the complex matrix that is a presidential election in Kenya. While the top ticket affects the races downstream, it can be argued that the reverse is also true. It is ironic that Raila Odinga, a power broker and a master of coalition building who was running for presidency for the fifth time, was choosing to ignore these principles. His own ascension in politics had been based on building a machine—ODM—that he used carefully during every election cycle. Yet in this election he was killing his own party and brand. The Azimio La Umoja coalition party was built as a party of parties that would be the vehicle Raila would use to contest the presidency. However, the constituent parties were free to sponsor parliamentary candidates. It sounded like a good idea on paper but it created friction as the parties found themselves in competition everywhere. To keep Azimio from fracturing both itself and its votes, the idea of “zoning”—having weaker candidates step down for stronger ones, essentially carving out exclusive zones for parties—gained traction, and would itself lead to major fall-outs, even after it was adopted as official Azimio policy in June.

However, beyond the zoning controversy, Wanyonyi’s candidacy served as a marker for a key block of Odinga voters—the Luhya—assuring them of their place within the Azimio coalition. Luhya voters have been Odinga’s insurance policy during his last three presidential runs. With Nyanza and the four western Kenya counties of Kakamega, Bungoma, Vihiga and Busia in his back pocket, he would be free to pick up other regions. Odinga claimed 71 per cent of the Luhya bloc in 2017 but this time, western voters were feeling jittery about the new political arrangements.

There is also another consideration. The Luhya voting bloc in Nairobi is also significant, and Odinga had carried the capital in his previous three presidential runs. The Nairobi electoral map is largely organized around five big groups: the Kikuyu, Luo, Luhya, Kamba, and Kisii. For the ODM party, having a combination of a Luo-Luhya voting bloc in Nairobi has enabled Odinga to take the city and to be a force to reckon with.

However, it appeared that all these factors were of no importance in 2022. So, Tim Wanyonyi was forced out of the race. He protested. Or attempted to. Western Kenya voters were furious, but who cared?

Miscalculation

The morning after the State House meeting, a group calling themselves Luhya professionals had strong words for both Odinga and Azimio.

“We refuse to be used as a ladder for other political expediencies whenever there is an election,” Philip Kisia, who was the chairman of this loose “professional group” said during a press conference that paraded the faces of political players from the Luhya community. The community had “irreducible minimum” and would not allow itself to “to be used again this time.” Other speakers at that press conference—including ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna—laid claim to what they called the place of the Luhya community in Nairobi. The political relationship between Luhyas and Luos has not been without tensions; in the aftermath of the opposition’s unravelling in the 90s, Michael Kijana Wamalwa and Raila Odinga fought for supremacy within the Ford Kenya party. Wamalwa believed the throne left by Jaramogi Oginga Odinga was his for the taking. However, Odinga’s son, Raila, mounted a challenge for the control of the party, eventually leaving Ford Kenya to build his own party, the National Development Party (NDP). The Luhya-Luo relationship was broken. Luhya sentiment was that, having been faithful to Odinga’s father, it was time for Wamalwa to lead the opposition.

These old political wounds have flared up during every election cycle, and Raila Odinga has worked for decades to reassure the voting bloc and bury the hatchet. This time, however, he was different. He didn’t seem to care about those fragile egos. After the press conference, a strategist in Odinga’s camp wondered aloud, “Who will they [Luhyas] vote for?”

The next 21 days were to be pivotal for Kenya’s presidential election. Azimio moved on and introduced Polycarp Igathe as their candidate for Nairobi. A former deputy governor in Nairobi who had quit just months after taking office, Igathe is well known for his C-suite jobs and intimate links to the Kenyan political elite. His selection, though, played perfectly into the rival Kenya Kwanza coalition’s “hustlers vs dynasties” narrative which sought to frame the 2022 elections as a contest between the political families that have dominated Kenya’s politics and economy since independence. The sons of a former vice president and president respectively, Odinga and Uhuru were branded as dynasties while the then deputy president claimed for himself the title of “hustler”.

These old political wounds have flared up during every election cycle, and Raila Odinga has worked for decades to reassure the voting bloc and bury the hatchet.

But, William Ruto’s side also saw something else in that moment—an opportunity to get a chunk of the important Luhya vote. Ruto first entered into a coalition with Musalia Mudavadi, selling their alliance as a “partnership of equals”, and then followed that up with the offer of a Luhya gubernatorial candidate to Nairobians in the name of Senator Johnson Koskei Sakaja.

Meanwhile, Wanyonyi’s half-brother, the current Speaker of the National Assembly, Moses Wetangula, was a principle in Ruto’s camp. Up to this point, Wetangula had struggled to find a coherent message to sell Ruto’s candidacy to the Luhya nation. But, with his brother being shafted by Azimio, Wetangula saw a political opening; he quickly called a press conference and complained bitterly about the “unfair Odinga” whom he said the Luhya community would not support for “denying their son a ticket to run for the seat of the governor of Nairobi”. His press conference went almost unnoticed and it is not even clear if Azimio took notice of the political significance of Wetangula’s protestations.

Azimio had offered their opponents an inroad into western Kenya politics and Ruto wasted little time trying turn a key Odinga voting bloc. With Sakaja confirmed as the Kenya Kwanza candidate for the Nairobi governor’s race, Wetangula and Kenya Kwanza made Western Kenya a centrepiece of their path to presidency. Tim Wanyonyi was presented as a martyr. The Ford Kenya leader took to all the radio stations, taking calls or sending emissaries, to declare Odinga’s betrayal. In the days and weeks that followed, William Ruto would make a dozen more visits to Luhyaland than his rival, assuring the voters that there would be a central place reserved for them in his administration. In contrast, on a visit to western Kenya, Raila Odinga expressed anger that an opinion poll had shown him trailing Ruto in Bungoma. “He is at nearly 60 per cent and I am at 40 per cent. Shame on you people! Shame on you people! Shame on you!” he told the crowd. He would eventually lose Bungoma and Trans Nzoia to William Ruto.

To be sure, Odinga won western Kenya with 55 per cent of the vote, but William Ruto had 45 per cent, enough to light his path to the presidency. He would repeat the same feat in Nairobi and coast regions, traditionally Odinga strongholds where he would have expected to bag upwards of 60 per cent of the vote. Azimio modelling had put these regions in Raila’s column but Kenya Kwanza took advantage of the mistake-prone Odinga. And wherever Odinga blundered, Ruto mopped up. As Speaker, Wetangula is today the third most powerful man in in the country. Yet just four years ago, he was an Odinga ally who had been stripped off his duties as a minority leader in the Senate by Odinga’s ODM party. At the time he warned that the divorce “would be messy, it would be noisy, it would be unhelpful, it would not be easy, it would have casualties”. It was the first of many political blunders that Odinga would make.

Unforced errors

Looking back, Odinga’s 2022 run for the presidency had all the hallmarks of a campaign that didn’t know what it didn’t know; it was filled with assumptions, and sometimes made the wrong judgment calls. By handing over his backyard to Ruto and choosing to ally with President Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila ended up being branded a “state project”.

In 2005, Odinga had used the momentum generated by his successful campaign in a referendum against Mwai Kibaki’s attempt to foist on the country a bastardized version of the constitution negotiated in Bomas to launch early campaigns for his 2007 presidential run. However, this time, as the courts hamstrung his attempt to launch the BBI referendum, Ruto was already off to the races, having begun his presidential campaign three years early.

“He is at nearly 60 per cent and I am at 40 per cent. Shame on you people! Shame on you people! Shame on you!”

With the rejection of constitutional changes, which were found to be deeply unpopular among many Kenyans, Odinga was finally in a strange place, a politician now out of touch, defending an unpopular government, a stranger to his own political base. The failure of BBI as a political tool was really the consequence of Odinga’s and Kenyatta’s inability to understand the ever-changing Kenyan political landscape. Numerous times they just seemed to not know how to deal with the dynamism of William Ruto. He would shape-shift, change the national conversation, and nothing they threw at him seemed to stick, including, corruption allegations. For a politician who created the branding of opponents as his tool, Odinga had finally been branded and it stuck.

Bow out

In the final day of the campaigns, both camps chose Nairobi to make their final submissions. Azimio chose Kasarani stadium. It was, as expected, full of colour, with a Tanzanian celebrity musician, Diamond Platnumz, brought in to boot. Supporters were treated to rushed speeches by politicians who had somewhere else to be. Azimio concluded its final submission early and the speeches by Odinga and his running mate, Martha Karua, weren’t exactly a rallying call. It was as if they were happy to be put out of their pain as they quickly stepped off the stage and left the stadium. In contrast, Ruto’s final submission was filled with speeches of fury by politicians angered by “state capture” and the “failing economy”. Speaker after speaker roused the audience with their defiant messages. They ended the meeting an hour before the end of IEBC campaign deadline. A video soon appeared online of William Ruto sprinting across the Wilson airport runway to catch a chopper and make it to one final rally in central Kenya before the IEBC’s 6 p.m. campaign deadline.

Pictures of the deputy president on top of a car at dusk in markets in Kiambu were the last images of his campaign to be shared on social media. Ruto won because he wanted the presidency more than Odinga and was willing to work twice as hard as both Odinga and Kenyatta.

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Lagos From Its Margins: Everyday Experiences in a Migrant Haven

From its beginnings as a fishing village, Lagos has grown into a large metropolis that attracts migrants seeking opportunity or Internally Displaced Persons fleeing violence.

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Lagos From Its Margins: Everyday Experiences in a Migrant Haven
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Lagos, City of Migrants

From its origins as a fishing village in the 1600s, Lagos has urbanised stealthily into a vast metropolis, wielding extensive economic, political and cultural influence on Nigeria and beyond. Migration in search of opportunities has been the major factor responsible for the demographic and spatial growth of the city as Lagos has grown from 60,221 in 1872 to over 23 million people today. The expansion of the city also comes with tensions around indigene-settler dynamics, especially in accessing land, political influence and urban resources. There are also categories of migrants whose status determines if they can lay hold of the “urban advantage” that relocating to a large city offers.

A major impetus to the evolution of modern Lagos is the migration of diverse groups of people from Nigeria’s hinterland and beyond. By the 1800s, waves of migrants (freed slaves) from Brazil and Freetown had made their way to Lagos, while many from Nigeria’s hinterland including the Ekiti, Nupes, Egbas and Ijebus began to settle in ethnic enclaves across the city. In the 1900s, migrant enclaves were based on socio-economic and/or ethnicity status. Hausas (including returnees from the Burma war) settled in Obalende and Agege, while the Ijaw and Itsekiri settled in waterfront communities around Ajegunle and Ijora. International migrant communities include the Togolese, Beninoise and Ghanaian, as well as large communities of Lebanese and Indian migrants. The names and socio-cultural mix in most Lagos communities derive from these historical migrant trajectories.

Permanent temporalities

A study on coordinated migrations found that, as a destination city, Lagos grew 18.6 per cent between 2000 and 2012, with about 96 per cent of the migrants coming from within Nigeria. While migration to Lagos has traditionally been in search of economic opportunities, new classes of migrants have emerged over the last few decades. These are itinerant migrants and internally displaced persons.

Itinerant migrants are those from other areas of Nigeria and West Africa who travel to work in Lagos while keeping their families back home. Mobility cycles can be weekly, monthly or seasonal. Such migrants have no address in Lagos as they often sleep at their work premises or in mosques, saving all their earned income for remittance. They include construction artisans from Benin and Togo who come to Lagos only when they have jobs, farmers from Nigeria’s northern states who come to Lagos to work as casual labourers in between farming seasons (see box), as well as junior staff in government and corporate offices whose income is simply too small to cover the high cost of living in Lagos.

While people from Nigeria’s hinterland continue to arrive in the city in droves, the wave of West African in-migration has ebbed significantly. This is mostly because of the economic challenges Nigeria is currently facing that have crashed the Naira-to-CFA exchange rates. As a result, young men from Togo, Ghana and Benin are finding cities like Dakar and Banjul more attractive than Lagos.

Photo. Taibat Lawanson

Photo. Taibat Lawanson

Aliu* aka Mr Bushman, from Sokoto, Age 28

Aliu came to Lagos in 2009 on the back of a cattle truck. His first job was in the market carrying goods for market patrons. He slept in the neighbourhood mosque with other young boys. Over the years, he has done a number of odd jobs including construction work. In 2014, he started to work as a commercial motorcyclist (okada) and later got the opportunity to learn how to repair them. He calls himself an engineer and for the past four years has earned his income exclusively from riding and repairing okada. Even though he can afford to rent a room, he currently lives in a shared shack with seven other migrants.

He makes between N5000 and N8000 weekly and sends most of it to his family through a local transport operator who goes to Sokoto weekly. His wife and three children are in the village, but he would rather send them money than bring them to Lagos. According to him, “The life in Lagos is too hard for women”.

Since he came to Lagos thirteen years ago, Aliu has never spent more than four months away from Sokoto at a time. He stays in Sokoto during the rainy season to farm rice, maize and guinea corn, and has travelled back home to vote every time since he came to Lagos.

 

The second category of migrants are those who have been displaced from their homesteads in Northern Nigeria by conflict, either Boko Haram insurgency or invasions by Fulani herdsmen. The crises have resulted in the violent destruction of many communities, with hundreds of thousands killed and many more forced to flee. With many who initially settled in camps for Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) dissatisfied with camp conditions, the burden of protracted displacement is now spurring a new wave of IDP migration to urban areas. Even though empirical data on the exact number of displaced persons migrating out of camps to cities is difficult to ascertain, it is obvious that this category of migrants are negotiating their access to the city and its resources in circumstances quite different from those of other categories of migrants.

IDPs as the emerging migrant class in Lagos 

According to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees, two of every three internally displaced persons globally are now living in cities. Evidence from Nigeria suggests that many IDPs are migrating to urban areas in search of relative safety and resettlement opportunities, with Lagos estimated to host the highest number of independent IDP migrants in the country. In moving to Lagos, IDPs are shaping the city in a number of ways including appropriating public spaces and accelerating the formation of new settlements.

There are three government-supported IDP camps in the city, with anecdotal evidence pointing to about eighteen informal IDP shack communities across the city’s peri-urban axis. This correlates with studies from other cities that highlight how this category of habitations (as initial shelter solutions for self-settled IDPs) accelerate the formation of new urban informal settlements and spatial agglomerations of poverty and vulnerability.

While people from Nigeria’s hinterland continue to arrive in the city in droves, the wave of West African in-migration has ebbed significantly.

IDPs in Lagos move around a lot. Adamu, who currently lives in Owode Mango—a shack community near the Lagos Free Trade zone—and has been a victim of forced eviction four times said, “As they [government or land owners] get ready to demolish this place and render us homeless again, we will move to another area and live there until they catch up with us.”

In the last ten years, there has been an increase in the number of homeless people on the streets of Lagos—either living under bridges, in public parks or incomplete buildings. Many of them are IDPs who are new migrants, and unable to access the support necessary to ease their entry into the city’s established slums or government IDP camps. Marcus, who came from Adamawa State in 2017 and has been living under the Obalende Bridge for five years, said, “I am still managing, living under the bridge. I won’t do this forever, my life will not end like this under a bridge. I hope to one day return to my home and continue my life”.

Blending in or not: Urban integration strategies 

Urban integration can be a real challenge for IDP migrants. Whereas voluntary migrants are often perceived to be legal entrants to the city and so can lay claim to urban resources, the same cannot be said about IDPs. Despite being citizens, and despite Nigeria being a federation, IDPs do not have the same rights as other citizens in many Nigerian cities and constantly face stigmatisation and harassment, which reinforces their penchant for enclaving.

The lack of appropriate documentation and skillsets also denies migrants full entry into the socio-economic system. For example, Rebekah said: “I had my WAEC [Senior Secondary school leaving certificate] results and when Boko Haram burnt our village, our family lost everything including my certificates. But how can I continue my education when I have not been able to get it? I have to do handwork [informal labour] now”. IDP children make up a significant proportion of out-of-school children in Lagos as many are unable to get registered in school simply because of a lack of address.

Most IDPs survive by deploying social capital—especially ethnic and religious ties. IDP ethnic groupings are quite organized; most belong to an ethnic-affiliated group and consider this as particularly beneficial to their resettlement and sense of identity in Lagos. Adamu from Chibok said, “When I come to Lagos in 2017, I come straight to Eleko. My brother [kinsman] help me with house, and he buy food for my family. As I no get work, he teach me okada work wey he dey do.”

The crises have resulted in the violent destruction of many communities, with hundreds of thousands killed and many more forced to flee.

Interestingly, migration to the city can also be good for women as many who were hitherto unemployed due to cultural barriers are now able to work. Mary who fled Benue with her family due to farmer-herder clashes explained, “When we were at home [in Benue], I was assisting my husband with farming, but here in Lagos, I have my own small shop where I sell food. Now I have my own money and my own work.”

Need for targeted interventions for vulnerable Lagosians

“Survival of the fittest” is an everyday maxim in the city of Lagos. For migrants, this is especially true as they are not entitled to any form of structured support from the government. Self-settlement is therefore daunting, especially in light of systemic limiting factors.

Migrants are attracted to big cities based on perceived economic opportunities, and with limited integration, their survival strategies are inevitably changing the spatial configurations of Lagos. While the city government is actively promoting urban renewal, IDP enclaving is creating new slums. Therefore, addressing the contextualised needs of urban migrant groups is a sine qua non for inclusive and sustainable urban development.

“I am still managing, living under the bridge. I won’t do this forever, my life will not end like this under a bridge. I hope to one day return to my home and continue my life”.

There is an established protocol for supporting international refugees. However, the same cannot be said for IDPs who are Nigerian citizens. They do not enjoy structured support outside of camps, and we have seen that camps are not an effective long-term solution to displacement. There is a high rate of IDP mobility to cities like Lagos, which establishes the fact that cities are an integral part of the future of humanitarian crisis. Their current survival strategies are not necessarily harnessing the urban advantage, especially due to lack of official recognition and documentation. It is therefore imperative that humanitarian frameworks take into account the role of cities and also the peculiarities of IDP migrations to them.

Lagos remains a choice destination city and there is therefore need to pay more attention to understanding the patterns, processes and implications of migration into the city. The paucity of migration-related empirical data no doubt inhibits effective planning for economic and social development. Availability of disaggregated migration data will assist the state to develop targeted interventions for the various categories of vulnerable Lagosians.  Furthermore, targeted support for migrant groups must leverage existing social networks, especially the organised ethnic and religious groups that migrants lean on for entry into the city and for urban integration.

*All names used in this article are pseudonyms

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