A recent study has revealed that expectant mothers in African countries, especially Uganda are more likely to die with preeclampsia condition compared to their counterparts in other East African countries.
Preeclampsia is a pregnancy disorder characterised by hypertension especially after 20 weeks of pregnancy. It can be dangerous to both the mother and the unborn baby. Gestational pregnancy may increase the risk of premature birth of the baby, increased birth weight of the baby, cesarean delivery, and preeclampsia.
Bulk of government health facilities in the country are struggling to manage the condition since most of the critical drugs needed to manage the condition are not stocked, simply because the government has not prioritised the condition.
The condition is the second cause of maternal deaths worldwide.
The study done by the Health Action on the situation on reproductive health commodities revealed that only 25 per cent of health facilities in Uganda stock Magnesium Sulphate as compared to 71 per cent in Kenya.
Magnesium sulphate is a mineral that reduces seizure risks in women with preeclampsia. A healthcare provider will give the medication intravenously.
The study conducted in four countries (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia) revealed that facilities in Tanzania and Zambia were not any better as far as the stocking of the commodity is concerned with 45 and 40 per cent respectively.
During the commemoration of world Preeclampsia Day on May 22 in Uganda, health facilities in Lira – a city in the Northern Region of Uganda – called for support from the government to enable them to handle mothers with the condition.
About 10 million pregnant women around the world develop preeclampsia each year. Out of the total 76,000 women die from preeclampsia and related hypertensive disorders. Additionally, the World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates the number of babies who die from these disorders every year to be on the order of 500,000.
In developing countries, a woman is seven times as likely to develop preeclampsia than a woman in a developed country. From 10-25 per cent of these cases will result in maternal death.
Preeclampsia should be detected and appropriately managed before the onset of convulsions (eclampsia) and other life-threatening complications.
Administering drugs such as magnesium sulfate for pre-eclampsia can lower a woman’s risk of developing eclampsia.
In developed countries like the US, pregnant women are commonly followed by a healthcare specialist (doctor, midwife or nurse) with frequent prenatal evaluations. In other areas of the world with little access to care and lower social status of women for instance in Africa, traditional health practices are usually inadequate to detect preeclampsia early.
Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy commonly advance to more complicated stages of the disease, and many births and deaths occur at home unreported.
Poor women in remote areas are the least likely to receive adequate health care. This is especially true for regions with low numbers of skilled health workers, such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
Although levels of prenatal care have increased in many parts of the world during the past decade, the WHO reports that only 46 per cent of women in low-income countries benefit from skilled care during childbirth. This means that millions of births are not assisted by a midwife, a doctor or a trained nurse.
But why are women in Africa dying of this condition yet it can be prevented?
Dr Annettee Nakimuli, an obstetrician-gynecologist at Mulago Hospital in Kampala and lecturer at Makerere University did research to answer that question.
She says although the condition affects women worldwide, in African women, it is more common and particularly severe. It also occurs earlier in pregnancy and can recur in subsequent pregnancies.
Dr Nakimuli reported that at Mulago Hospital where she works, 15 per cent of pregnancies develop life-threatening complications such as preeclampsia, hemorrhage, obstructed labour and sepsis.
She describes herself and her colleagues as being “on the front line” in the battle against death in pregnancy and childbirth. She did a study in 2017 in collaboration with Cambridge’s Department of Pathology and Centre for Trophoblast Research to unravel why a complex disease is so much worse in Africa.
But why would women of African descent suffer so much more from preeclampsia than other women? “There was an assumption in Africa that there was a socioeconomic reason, like poverty,” says Nakimuli. “I was convinced that there was something biological.”
She recruited 750 mothers at Mulago Hospital to what is the largest genetic study of pre-eclampsia conducted in Africa. She collected blood and umbilical cord samples and, in Cambridge, ‘typed’ the DNA to look at all the genetic variation.
“It was kind of a high-risk project, but my determination kept my hope alive. I wanted to find big things.” She says
The findings of the study revealed that killer-cell immunoglobulin receptors (KIRs), genes that protect African women against pre-eclampsia are different from those that protect European women.
KIRs recognises proteins called MHC on the invading fetal cells. Certain combinations of maternal KIR genes and fetal MHC genes are associated with pre-eclampsia, whereas other KIR genes appear to protect against the disease.
Moreover, the risky combination of maternal KIR and fetal MHC proteins occurs at a much higher frequency in sub-Saharan Africa than anywhere else in the world.
From the study, Dr Nakimuli together with other researchers will be researching to understand the biology of preeclampsia.
“We think that women of African ancestry may have these risk genes because of certain beneficial selective pressures, otherwise why would genes that kill mothers and babies be so common in the population? People with the gene that causes sickle-cell anaemia can fend off malaria – perhaps something similar is happening for KIR genes? And so now we are starting work to see whether the genes are protecting against infections such as measles, HIV and malaria.” She says
She also pointed out a lack of awareness and understanding of the condition as a barrier to treatment.
“There’s a general lack of awareness and understanding,” explains Nakimuli. “There isn’t even a Ugandan word for preeclampsia. The closest people get to describing the condition is ‘having hypertension which is different from other hypertension when you’re not pregnant’. It becomes a mouthful.”
Together with other researchers, they developed a format of awareness messages in which a radio presenter would play a real-life testimonial – such as a woman relaying the complications of her pregnancy – and then invite listeners to reply to a related question by sending a text to a toll-free number. Each respondent would subsequently receive an SMS socio demographic survey to complete.
“What makes preeclampsia such a challenge is that it has been impossible to predict or prevent,” explains Professor Ashley Moffett, from Cambridge’s Department of Pathology and Centre for Trophoblast Research, who is an expert on the disease.
“It’s been called the ‘silent killer’ because many women cannot feel the danger signs that their blood pressure is rising until it’s too late. Even when it is detected the only course of action is constant monitoring, and ultimately the only cure is delivery sometimes at too early a stage for the baby to survive,” adds Moffett.
However, during the release of the research study in the four countries in Zambia, Mr Denis Kibira, Executive Director, Coalition for Health Promotion and Social Development (HEPS) who conducted the study cited lack of enough blood pressure (BP) machines, designated preeclampsia ward, a postnatal ward, and inexperienced health workers to handle women with the condition as some of the challenges.
For instance, Lira Regional Referral Hospital in Uganda which receives about 100 expectant mothers daily for antenatal care, has only one blood pressure machine yet it serves nine districts in the region.
Mr Jino Okot, the in-charge of Ogur Health Centre IV, most health workers do not have the necessary skills to administer magnesium Sulphate and the government should do something to improve the situation of the mothers.
“Most of the health workers do not have the skills to diagnose preeclampsia. Some of them do not even know how to mix and administer. The Ministry of Health should understand that health workers need training if we are to ably manage the condition,” Mr Okot said.
Mr Edmond Acaka, Lira District assistant health officer-in-charge of maternal and child health, appealed to the Ministry of Health to come to the rescue of the district by increasing its budget to accommodate more of the commodities.
While Ms Beatrice Nyangoma, communications officer for HEPS-Uganda, asked the Ugandan government to consider regulating prices for magnesium sulphate to improve affordability and availability.
Mr Kibira while releasing the data to health journalists in Zambia in September said different levels of facilities were picked in each country. The methodology used consisted of a questionnaire and a qualitative survey component. Data collectors were trained in June 2018 (Tanzania), July 2018 (Kenya and Uganda), and August 2018 (Zambia).
The levels of health facilities visited in Kenya were level 3 and 5, in Tanzania: ‘Dispensary’ and above (country level 1-3), in Uganda: ‘Health Centre III’ and above (country level 3-7), and in Zambia: ‘Health post’ and above (country level 1-4).
The study conducted across sectors (public, private and mission) hospitals in urban and rural areas in 169 facilities in Kenya, 126 in Tanzania, 145 in Uganda and 237 in Zambia also revealed there was a large variability of supplements per type and country.
The mean availability of these commodities was 36 per cent in Kenyan health facilities, 29 per cent in Tanzanian, 37 per cent in Ugandan and 34 per cent in Zambian health facilities.
The data collection tool assessed the availability of 55 SRH commodities at the moment of data collection in each of the 677 study facilities.
Only in Zambia were all these supplements such as calcium gluconate, ferrous salt, folic acid, zinc, and oral rehydration salts commonly available (70-84 per cent overall) except calcium gluconate, which had an overall availability of just six per cent.
Calcium gluconate was also poorly stocked in other countries, with availabilities of 28 per cent in Kenya, 17 per cent (Uganda) and two per cent (Tanzania).
Oxytocin, used to induce labour and for the prevention and treatment of postpartum hemorrhage, was stocked relatively commonly (47-91 per cent), except the private sector in Kenya (27 per cent) and Zambia (20 per cent).
Zambia was leading with oxytocin stocks in facilities at 94 per cent followed by Kenya at 84 per cent. Tanzania third at 78 per cent while Uganda was the least with 64 per cent.
Gentamicin, used to treat pneumonia and neonatal and maternal sepsis,was moderately available in all countries (overall, 60-81 per cent), except for in Tanzania (23 per cent).
While the availability of dexamethasone, used in the management of pre-term labour to improve foetal lung maturity, was considerably lower, ranging from 11 per cent (overall, Tanzania) to 50 per cent in Uganda.
According to the World Health Organisation, the full intravenous magnesium sulphate regimens are recommended for the prevention and treatment of eclampsia.
“Magnesium sulfate is a lifesaving drug and should be available in all health-care facilities throughout the health system. The guideline development group believed that capacity for clinical surveillance of women and administration of calcium gluconate were essential components of the package of services for the delivery of magnesium sulfate,” says the WHO.
The international health agency states that in settings where there are resource constraints to manage the administration of magnesium sulfate safely in all women with pre-eclampsia, there may be a need to accord greater priority to the more severe cases.
The availability of medical devices from the study was inconsistent across the countries.
Speculums (metal or plastic device that is used to open the vagina enough to see inside were available at 85 per cent of the public facilities of Kenya, 84 per cent of Tanzania’s, 89 per cent of Uganda’s and 64 per cent of Zambia’s public facilities.
The private sector showed lower availabilities at 45 per cent of Tanzanian, 82 per cent of Uganda, 72 per cent of Kenya and 15 per cent of Zambian facilities.
Ultrasound scans had availability levels below 50 per cent in all sectors (public and private hospitals) of all countries, except the mission sector of Uganda (57 per cent).
Foetal scopes were commonly available in the public sector of Tanzania (97 per cent), Uganda (96 per cent) and Zambia (80 per cent), but not in Kenya (35 per cent).
Availability in the private and mission sectors showed a more mixed picture, with availabilities ranging from 16 per cent (private, Zambia) to 96 per cent (mission, Uganda).
Safe delivery kits were not at all available in Kenya and Uganda, and only 16 per cent of Zambian facilities. Tanzania had a much more elaborate availability at 82 per cent of public, 32 per cent of private and 33 per cent of mission facilities.
The availability of antiseptic was similar in Tanzania (65 per cent), Uganda (61 per cent) and Zambia (63 per cent), but lower in Kenya (24 per cent).
Vasectomy and tubal ligation kits were mostly unavailable in the four countries, with all overall availabilities below 10 per cent
Mr Kibira said most of the sexual reproductive health commodities were unavailable in most facilities because the governments were not budgeting enough for them.
“These are essentials that each country should have in place but most countries are not considering them as a priority hence the stock-outs,” he said
In the recommendation, Kenya was asked to adopt a multi-sectoral approach in the
provision of health services and commodities, especially in the rural and hard to reach areas, by integrating and bringing services closer to the population.
“County governments should include all the drugs as essential medicines by making budget available for their purchase,” recommends the study.
For Uganda, the government has been asked to actively seek out strategies to reduce the cost of high-cost SRHC such as magnesium sulphate, for instance through offering subsidies.
“Strategies to improve the SRHC supply chain must be actively sought to ensure that commodities are delivered on time and in the quantities ordered. Healthcare providers to receive additional training on SRHCs, especially in the private and mission sector facilities,” states the study.
The Zambian government has been urged to increase the number of trained staff, and improve the knowledge of existing staff and also improve the supply chain of the commodities.
For Tanzania, inadequate availability of SRH commodities, frequent stock-outs, poor logistic management, and limited community knowledge constituted major factors contributing to the problems experienced with accessing SRH commodities in the country
The government was, therefore, asked to ensure all the commodities on the international Essential Medicines Lists (EMLs) are also included in the Tanzania EML and sensitise communities about SRH services and commodities.
Follow the Money: Is There a Role for Cash Transfers in Climate Change Adaptation?
While Cash transfers are considered a better way to reach the poor who are in dire need during environmental shocks or as climate change creates ever-harsher conditions funds can still be diverted and embezzled all along the entire cash transfer chain, and the scale and speed of these programmes will intensify the corruption risks involved.
Climate change is significantly affecting everyone but those who are suffering the most are people already in vulnerable situations. In Turkana County – one of the largest counties in the northern part of Kenya – recurring natural disasters, prolonged droughts and excess floods have lead to loss of lives, livelihood and left many people subject to extreme poverty. These harsh climatic challenges have left Turkana residents, a population of 926,976, to not only rely solemnly on frequent supply of relief food but has also disrupted their rich culture and nomadic way of life.
According to a 2015 Human right’s watch report, “climate change has been one of the many factors that contributes to the lack of access to clean water and food to the residents of Turkana. The county’s minimum and maximum air temperatures have increased by 2°C and 3°C, and the rainfall patterns have also changed”, the report adds.
“During prolonged droughts women and children trek for distances in the hot sunny weather in search of the scarce food and water in the dry riverbeds. Families are unable to provide sufficient food and clean water. Most children are malnourished and hunger stricken. Due to competition on grazing lands and water, there is likelihood of an increase in conflict and insecurity,” the report futher states.
A combination with existing political, environmental and economic development challenges in Turkana has had an impact on the Turkana people’s ability to access food, water, health and security.
A proposed solution: cash transfers
In 2013, the government of Kenya through Vision 2030 on the sector for risk drought management declared ending drought emergencies by 2022 through establishment of a government social protection programme called National Safety Net Programme (NSNP) as part of the government’s initiatives to improve and enhance social protection delivery in the country.
NSNP was established to provide a common operating framework for the government’s four Cash Transfer programmes including, Persons With Severe Disabilities Cash Transfer, Older Persons Cash Transfer, Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children Cash (CT- OVC) and the Hunger Safety Net Cash Transfer. Except for Hunger safety Net Cash transfer, the rest are run under the Ministry of Labour and Social protection.
Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP) operates under the Ministry of Devolution and Planning, managed by the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) a state agency, mandated to exercise overall coordination of all matters relating to drought risk management and to establish mechanisms, either on its own or with stakeholders, that will end drought emergencies in Kenya.
During the HSNP launch in 2008, the people of northern Kenya were gald and ready to embrace the programme as they believed it has the potential to improve the lives of the most vulnerable in Northern Kenya.
The program funding
The government of Kenya, with the aid of international donors such as UKAid from the DFID (Department for International Development) partnered with FSD Kenya (Financial Sector Deepening), to cash transfer payments to the people of Wajir, Turkana, Marsabit and Mandera.
FSD Kenya was a specialist development programme originally established by the UK government’s Department for International Development (DFID) to provide a continuing mechanism through which donor agencies in Kenya could pool their efforts to support the development of inclusive financial markets. In addition to DFID, it was funded by the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA), World Bank, Agence Francaise de Development (AFD) and the Gates Foundation. Because of its local expertise and experience in financial service development, FSD Kenya was tasked by DFID to take responsibility for developing a solution to the payments element of HSNP. FSD undertook a long process of market preparation before issuing an open call for tenders to provide payments services. In April 2008, Equity Bank of Kenya was selected by FSD bid panel to provide the payments.
The programme has been implemented in two phases. Phase 1, starting with a pilot from 2008-2012, funded by DFID & Australian Department for Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT). Phase two (HSNP2) of the programme started in 2013 – 2018, funded by the Governments of Kenya and the United Kingdom with a two-year extension in readiness for the third phase in 2020.
The cash transfer programme operates in two groups. Group one are households that regularly receive cash transfers and group two are households that receive emergency cash transfers from HSNP during drought.
Turkana is one of the counties that benefit from the programme. A total of 137,534 households have been registered out of this, 39,918 are households targeted to receive routine HSNP payments.
How it works
“On a particular payroll that contains the name of the beneficiary, identity card, Equity Bank of Kenya account number and the amount, there are instances where funds are co-funded by the Government of Kenya or DFID or both,” opines Peter Thirikwa, the Management Information Systems Specialist under the Hunger Safety Net Programme.
“For the DFID Funds, the money would flow through FSD where NDMA will then direct FSD the amount of money for the particular payroll. FSD would then credit the Equity bank of Kenya which is the service provider that opened the accounts for the beneficiries and then Equity bank would move the funds from the holding account to the individual accounts through the Equity Agents (Dukas),” he further notes.
Every financial year, “NDMA sets a budget for HSNP through the ministry of Devolution and Planning, and the funds will flow from the treasury into an NDMA account sitting at the NIC bank. As an authority, NDMA is regulated to open a bank account where money flows from treasury to the operations account as per the mandate of the authority,” he notes further.
“Then NDMA instructs NIC bank to transfer the money to an Equity account through the central bank. Equity is then instructed by NDMA to pay the beneficiaries according to the payroll, which is done through agents in the communities. Equity Bank of Kenya pays the payroll according to the instructions given by NDMA, credits all the households as per the payroll, totalling to the same value that was transferred to the central bank,” Peter concludes.
Delays and distribution issues
The HSNP originally provided Ksh 2,150 to each beneficiary household (or individual in the case of the social pension) every two months then later to Ksh 2,700 every month. Beneficiaries are given a Smartcard and to access the funds they have to use their biometric information, fingerprints in order to collect cash at any time from a range of pay points mainly small shops called Dukas across the four counties.
As of 23rd July 2014, the first year the government was in charge of the program, out of 100,000 target households for group 1 (the routine payments) 90 percent of accounts were opened, 78 percent were active and 77 percent were being paid. An annual report from 2020 said “over the 12 years, HSNP reached nearly 100,000 households (600,000 people, 60 percent of whom were women). Accordingly, group 1 households received regular payments, increasing from Ksh 1,050 every two months under Phase 1 to KES 5,400 under Phase 2.”
However, a team of journalists working with the Elephant visited several villages in Turkana County in November last year and found that though many people said they had been given cards some have never received cash and they didn’t know when to expect them.
The 2018 Auditors general report states that NDMA could not provide bank statements relating to funds transferred to the beneficiaries under HSNP. As a result, the auditor’s could not confirm the balance of Ksh. 2,119,239,700 and Ksh. 2,744,213,700 reflected in the financial statements relating to the government of Kenya and donor funding respectively.
Further, HSNP’s Government of Kenya and Donor programme expenditure of Ksh. 5,049,328,332 that comprised payments to various beneficiaries did not have a document to support the basis of how the various beneficiaries were identified, and the basis of the rates used for paying the beneficiaries was not supported either.
The then Auditor General Edward Ouko told the Elephant that he could only conclude that the funds were unaccounted for as he was only provided with the documentation he referenced in the audit report.
Is it enough?
Even if the money were paid on time in every case, that doesn’t mean it’s always adequate for people living in the regions affected by severe droughts, floods, or locusts. According to a 2017 Report on the cost of diet analysis in Turkana county, the current cash transfer of Ksh 2,700 for very poor and poor households is not enough.
“Current cash income and available livestock products are not sufficient for a family to access a nutritious diet. Avenues should be explored to allow households to increase their means to access nutritious foods, such as food for work or vouchers,” the report says.
The report suggests that increasing the cash transfer for these groups to Ksh 10,000 a month would increase affordability, but would not be sufficient in closing the affordability gap. Poor infrastructure in Turkana is a barrier to gaining physical access to the foods, that there is sufficient diversity of foods in the region.
However, the frequency with which these foods are available to households and the quantity with which these can be found in the markets is likely to be an obstacle to achieving a nutritious diet. The report adds that better roads will also allow for more efficient transportation of fresh produce and, possibly, decrease the extent of food degradation and nutrient depletion due to heat and travel conditions.
The cash transfer program is intended to continue running for at least another four years. But while these transfer payments can help those in dire need during environmental shocks or as climate change creates ever harsher conditions, experts and reports argue this is just one small part of a larger need for an effective long-term solution.
This article was developed with support from the Money Trail Project
Things Are Elephant: The Effect of COVID-19 in Nairobi Low-Income Areas
The full extent of the impact of the coronavirus crisis in Nairobi low-income areas is yet to be seen but as Juliet Atellah analyses, it will be important to track.
At least 30 percent of low-income earners have lost their jobs since the Government of Kenya placed restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19 reveals a recently published report.
The report, titled Survey on the Covid-19 Global Pandemic in Nairobi’s low income Areas conducted by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA), a local research firm, found that at least 60 percent of those who have suffered loss of daily earnings claim that the restrictions should be lifted so that people can resume their normal economic activities even if this means the virus continues to spread. This is against a backdrop of increased desperation in many of these low-income neigbourhoods, which has strained resources in a least 75 percent of households, the report notes.
Social institutions and movement have not been spared either by the lockdown. According to the report, at least 66 percent of the respondents have been affected by the ban on travel into and out of the metropolitan and the imposition of the 1900 hrs to 0500 hrs curfew. James Mogaka, a resident of Kawangware told the Elephant that he has been unable to travel to his home county of Kisii to spend time with his family. He has not seen them since the regulations were enforced. As is the plight of Mogaka and many others, the report highlights that 57 percent of low-income earners are very worried on the continuation of the Nairobi travel ban and curfew and they advocate for the restrictions to be lifted so people can resume their normal activities.
Increase in crime has been the major reason why over 80 percent of respondents are keen that the curfew and travel restrictions be lifted and economic activities continue. They are concerned about the future levels of crime due to the economic implications of the lockdown. When asked to corroborate this, Eunice Mwaniki, a resident of Huruma and mother of two, told The Elephant that she closes her vegetable business at 1600 hrs everyday because once dusk approaches, gangs of young men troll the streets pickpocketing and mugging citizens of their hard earned money. She emphasised that the last time she witnessed this kind of theft and daylight robbery was during the grim days of the Nyayo era when Nairobi was infamously christened “Nairobbery”
A majority of denizens are pessimistic that things will change and even bigger majorities are “very worried” about contracting the COVID-19 virus with the constant rise in the number of cases and deaths. Indeed, how such perceptions will change as the full extent of the impact of the virus crisis will be important to track moving forward, given the impact of such perceptions on actual behaviour, both related to the disease and the conditions of life more generally.
On 6th June 2020, a clear majority of respondents had hoped that the President would announce an end to both the travel ban and night curfew but what followed was only a reduction of the curfew period and a hinted policy posture to open up the country. As the country gets closer to 6th July 2020, the day the lockdown will likely be lifted; it is yet to be perceived what direction the government will take. What is clear, however, is that Kenyans are eagerly expecting a policy shift that will make their lives better.
COVID-19 in Kenya: A Situational Analysis of the Now and the Near Future
Using mathematical modelling, Professor Waititu simulates the progress of the coronavirus outbreak.
The daily positive cases in Kenya are on an upward trend. The highest daily count of 278 cases was reported on 27/06/2020. The total confirmed cases so far are 6,070.
In Africa, the five countries with the highest number of confirmed cases are South Africa with 138,134 cases, Egypt with 65,188 cases, Nigeria with 24,567 cases, Ghana with 16,742 cases and Algeria with 13,273 cases.
The number of confirmed cases could be attributed to the total number of tests conducted by a country. For example, by 27th June 2020, South Africa had tested 1.53 Million people. Ghana had tested 288,465 people by 25th June 2020, Nigeria had tested 130,164 people by 28th June 2020 while Kenya had 165,196 tests by 29th June 2020. The implication here is that the positive cases in Kenya could increase with increased number of tests. Kenya will therefore have to increase the number of tests across the country incase the government decides to remove its lock down restrictions in the identified hot spots. Early detection of positive cases and proper contact tracing are very important in the recovery of infected cases.
On the death rate, Kenya has registered 143 fatalities, translating to a death rate of 2.36%. South Africa which has the highest number of confirmed cases in Africa at 138,134, has a lower death rate of 1.78%. One of the highest death rates in Africa has been reported in Algeria at 6.78% from 897 deaths. Ghana has one of the lowest reported death rate of 0.67% from 112 deaths. Egypt has a death rate of 4.28% from 2,789 deaths while Nigeria has a death rate of 2.30% from 565 deaths. Kenya is therefore doing relatively well in managing the positive cases compared to other African countries.
Kenya’s recovery rate is currently at 32.47% from 1,971 recoveries. This is a much lower recovery rate compared to statistics from other African countries. South Africa has a recovery rate of 49.90 % from 68,925 recoveries, Algeria has a recovery rate of 70.60% from 9,371 recoveries while Ghana and Nigeria have recovery rates of 75.98 % and 36.66% respectively. Kenya needs to raise the recovery rate to a comfortable figure above 60%. This will help the country release pressure on the health system and also motivate the easing of the existing lockdown restrictions.
How will Kenyan COVID-19 infections look like in the coming days? The answer may not be definite since the spread of the virus is determined by the nature of community response to safety strategies given by MoH such as regular hand washing, social distancing and staying at home. However, as shown in the prediction graph below, the daily infections in Kenya are going to increase as time goes by. It is predicted that in the near future, the daily cases in Kenya will soon be above 300 with the possibility of a maximum of about 400. This conclusion is based on the assumption that the testing samples will be optimally selected.
Has Kenya reached it’s peak? The simple answer is no. As a matter of fact, Kenya will hit the 10,000 mark of confirmed cases within the month of July 2020. As seen in the graph below for cummulative confirmed cases, the positive cases are still on an upward trend. A peak will be experienced when the cummulative cases will start stagnating around a certain figure over time. With the current trend of infections, the earliest time Kenya will reach its peak is around September 2020. It should also be noted that incase the lockdown is relaxed, Kenya will definitely experience a surge in the infections before the situation stabilises. This has happened in other countries such as South Africa, Germany and China. Since COVID-19 has spread to most of the counties in Kenya, the focus now should be on the level of preparedness by the county governments in implementing the MoH guidelines and the avalaibility of functioning and COVID-19 equiped hospitals.
This report is based on the data from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CCSE) as at 9:00am E.A.T on 29/06/2010.
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